UPDATE 1-US gas futures hit seven-week high as heat drives demand and output slips
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% to a seven-week high on Monday on forecasts for warmer-than-expected weather and higher air conditioning demand over the next two weeks, as well as lower output in recent weeks.
Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 6.4 cents, or 2.2%, to settle at $3.024 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since March 27 for a second day in a row.
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slipped to 109.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 2.
RECORD HEAT IN WASHINGTON DC
Temperatures in Washington D.C. will reach record-breaking levels of 99 degrees Fahrenheit (37.2 degrees Celsius) on Monday, 101 F on Tuesday and 97 F on Wednesday, according to weather forecaster AccuWeather.
That compares with an all-time high of 96 F hit on May 18, 1877, May 19, 1997, and on May 20, 1996. The normal high in the nation's capital around this time of year is 77 F.
To escape the heat, homes and businesses in the PJM power grid, which includes Washington, cranked up their air conditioners, boosting spot prices for Monday by 249% to $145 per megawatt-hour, the highest since February. PJM manages the electric grid in all or part of 13 states from New Jersey to Illinois.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 98.1 bcfd this week to 98.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.0 bcfd so far in May due to spring maintenance reductions at several plants, including ExxonMobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.
In other LNG news, there are now three vessels expected to reach China in June directly from the U.S.
No LNG vessel has sailed straight from the U.S. to China since February 2025, according to LSEG data, due primarily to trade disruptions between the world's two economic superpowers during U.S. President Donald Trump's second term.
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Week ended May 15 Forecast |
Week ended May 8 Actual |
Year ago May 15 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 15 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+85 |
+85 |
+119 |
+92 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,375 |
2,290 |
2,358 |
2,242 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+5.9% |
+6.5% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.05 |
2.96 |
3.46 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
17.45 |
17.23 |
11.68 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
18.80 |
17.11 |
11.83 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
30 |
36 |
41 |
44 |
49 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
131 |
113 |
91 |
102 |
92 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
161 |
149 |
132 |
146 |
141 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.1 |
109.8 |
109.8 |
106.2 |
100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.8 |
6.3 |
6.8 |
N/A |
7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
115.9 |
116.0 |
116.6 |
N/A |
107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
N/A |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.4 |
7.1 |
7.1 |
N/A |
6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
16.7 |
17.0 |
17.4 |
15.2 |
12.9 |
U.S. Commercial |
5.7 |
5.1 |
4.8 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
U.S. Residential |
6.1 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant |
30.7 |
31.9 |
33.3 |
32.5 |
30.6 |
U.S. Industrial |
22.1 |
21.8 |
21.6 |
22.7 |
22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
72.1 |
71.2 |
71.5 |
74.2 |
73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
98.9 |
98.1 |
98.8 |
N/A |
94.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
89 |
89 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
92 |
93 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
97 |
98 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended May 22 |
Week ended May 15 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
18 |
15 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
10 |
11 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
32 |
35 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
13 |
13 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
20 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.89 |
2.79 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.12 |
2.05 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.46 |
1.47 |
2.89 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.00 |
2.04 |
2.25 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.35 |
2.32 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.14 |
2.27 |
2.82 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.15 |
2.18 |
2.98 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-4.40 |
-3.58 |
1.34 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.14 |
1.05 |
1.32 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
52.50 |
44.98 |
40.31 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
145.48 |
41.66 |
43.04 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
13.91 |
2.46 |
39.90 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
10.00 |
9.88 |
29.10 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
5.29 |
-2.38 |
17.36 |
28.44 |
53.02 |