UPDATE 1-US natgas edge up but post weekly decline as mild weather limits demand
U.S. Global Investors, Inc. Class A GROW | 0.00 |
Adds latest prices
June 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged higher on Friday from the lowest in more than two weeks, but recorded a weekly decline as a milder-than-expected weather forecast and a larger-than-expected weekly storage build pressured prices.
Front-month gas futures for July delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.3 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $3.12 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). During the session the contract fell to its lowest level since May 27. It was down 3.4% for the week, its biggest weekly decline since late April.
"This market is posting fresh lows for this month as it is being forced to discount a further bearish tilt to the weather factor while also seeing some negative spillover from the lower oil prices," Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.
Oil prices fell nearly 3% on Friday to their lowest in nearly two months after U.S. President Donald Trump canceled new strikes on Iran.
On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 108 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 5, bigger than the 99-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll. It compared with an increase of 110 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 95 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, the same as in May and down from a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 104.2 bcfd this week to 104.4 bcfd next week.
|
Week ended Jun 12 forecast |
Week ended Jun 5 actual |
Year ago Jun 12 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 12 |
|
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+82 |
+108 |
+97 |
+78 |
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,768 |
2,686 |
2,788 |
2,608 |
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.1% |
+6.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.10 |
3.12 |
3.64 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
15.93 |
16.82 |
12.38 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
18.92 |
18.92 |
13.05 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
|
|
|
|
|
Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
8 |
7 |
20 |
20 |
13 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
186 |
193 |
138 |
138 |
152 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
194 |
200 |
158 |
158 |
165 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.7 |
108.4 |
108.9 |
106.1 |
100.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.0 |
6.6 |
6.4 |
N/A |
7.7 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
116.7 |
115.0 |
115.4 |
N/A |
108.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.3 |
7.4 |
7.4 |
N/A |
6.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
16.7 |
17.9 |
17.9 |
14.1 |
12.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.5 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
U.S. Residential |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
U.S. Power Plant |
39.4 |
39.7 |
39.9 |
37.7 |
39.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.6 |
21.7 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
76.9 |
76.8 |
77.1 |
75.6 |
78.5 |
Total U.S. Demand |
102.9 |
104.2 |
104.4 |
N/A |
99.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
N/A = Not Available |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
85 |
86 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
90 |
90 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
95 |
95 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Week ended Jun 12 |
Week ended June 5 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
14 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
8 |
11 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
6 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
39 |
38 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
15 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
17 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.161 |
3.27 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.63 |
2.80 |
2.34 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.793 |
1.75 |
3.12 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.446 |
2.53 |
2.17 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.721 |
2.84 |
2.76 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.831 |
3.00 |
2.97 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.792 |
2.77 |
3.59 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-0.51 |
-0.98 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.7 |
1.25 |
0.64 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
93.78 |
81.05 |
60.18 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
166.84 |
161.75 |
70.06 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
10.57 |
18.10 |
42.59 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
25.13 |
27.20 |
38.53 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
11.95 |
19.42 |
22.51 |
28.44 |
53.02 |