Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Monday on rising output, a decline in liquefied natural gas export flows, a possible tropical storm in the Gulf, and forecasts for lower demand this week than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.1 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $2.86 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

In the Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said a tropical depression off the west coast of Florida could strengthen into a tropical storm later Monday as it moves west across Louisiana toward Texas.

Energy analysts noted the storm would likely reduce gas demand through cooler rainy weather and by possibly knocking out power to homes and businesses and causing LNG export plants to reduce output.

The analysts noted that tropical storms could disrupt gas flows on pipelines but usually do not reduce output by much since most U.S. gas production is located far inland in the Marcellus/Utica shale in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia and the Permian basin in West Texas and New Mexico.

Only about 2% of total U.S. gas output comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 110.0 bcfd in June, but remained below the monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual. As they wait for a federal report on Thursday, analysts projected the amount of gas in storage likely rose to 6.5% above normal during the week ended July 17, up from 6.4% above during the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through August 4, forcing power generators to continue burning lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 111.0 bcfd this week to 111.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was higher.

LNG EXPORTS

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants eased to 17.3 bcfd so far in July due in part to maintenance at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas, down from 17.4 bcfd in June and the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas.

Global gas prices have spiked in recent years primarily due to supply disruptions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran in 2026.

Around the world, gas was trading at a four-month high near $20 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and at a 17-week high near $21 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

	Week ended Jul 17 Forecast	Week ended Jul 10 Actual	Year ago Jul 17	Five-year average (2021-2025) Jul 17
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+35	+41	+27	+30
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,059	3,024	3,072	2,873
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.5%	+6.4%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.84	2.91	3.30	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	19.77	19.34	9.98	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	20.99	19.93	12.53	12.24	18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	2	3	3	2	3
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	241	237	207	212	202
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	243	240	210	214	205
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	110.9	111.3	111.0	107.9	101.4
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.9	7.2	7.0	N/A	8.2
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	118.8	118.5	118.0	N/A	109.6
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.3	2.3	2.3	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.0	6.8	7.1	N/A	6.6
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	17.0	17.1	17.7	15.6	11.0
U.S. Commercial	4.3	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.7
U.S. Residential	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.6	3.6
U.S. Power Plant	48.0	46.5	47.1	44.9	46.1
U.S. Industrial	21.6	21.6	21.7	22.2	21.8
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.3	2.2	2.2	2.3	3.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	85.3	83.9	84.6	83.0	84.9
Total U.S. Demand	111.5	110.1	111.6	N/A	104.8
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	83	83	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	90	90	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	93	93	80	77	76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended July 24	Week ended July 17	2025	2024	2023
Wind	8	6	11	11	10
Solar	8	8	6	5	4
Hydro	4	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	43	45	40	42	41
Coal	19	19	18	16	17
Nuclear	17	17	18	19	19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.75	2.83	3.20	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.09	2.30	2.87	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.76	2.64	3.45	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.03	2.23	2.61	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.56	2.65	2.95	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.22	2.45	4.50	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.38	3.35	3.70	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	2.21	1.89	1.57	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.12	1.22	0.51	1.13	2.13
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	51.79	51.79	89.06	77.12	61.67
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	69.97	99.94	87.25	60.23	54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX	68.68	40.76	52.17	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	48.75	35.14	48.82	34.82	59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX	39.44	32.60	33.95	28.44	53.02