UPDATE 1-US natgas prices ease to two-month low on rising output, ample fuel in storage
Adds EIA storage report and latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased to a two-month low on Thursday on rising output, lower liquefied natural gas export flows, and ample amounts of gas in storage after a near-normal weekly storage build.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.6 cents, or 1.2%, to $2.888 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since May 13.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 41 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended July 10.
That was close to the 43-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 47 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 45 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking ahead, futures for calendar 2027 NGCALYZ7 fell to $3.34 per mmBtu, their lowest since February 2022.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July from 110.0 bcfd in June, but remained below the monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual. As they wait for a federal report on Thursday, they projected the amount of gas in storage eased to 6.4% above normal during the week ended July 10, down from 6.6% during the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through July 31, forcing power generators to burn lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 111.3 bcfd this week to 110.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants held at 17.4 bcfd so far in July, the same as in June, remaining below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
In Texas, Freeport LNG's export plant was on track to take in more gas on Thursday after all three liquefaction trains shut on Wednesday.
In other LNG news, the first tanker to sail directly from the U.S. to China docked at the Chinese port of Yangpu on Thursday. The LNG, however, may never enter China since the terminal allows re-exports without import duties.
So far, no LNG tanker has left a U.S. export plant and gone directly to China since U.S. President Donald Trump's second term started in January 2025, due primarily to trade disputes between the world's two biggest economies.
China, which imported large amounts of U.S. gas in the past and has many contracts to buy U.S. LNG, is the world's biggest gas importer, while the U.S. is the world's biggest gas producer, consumer and exporter. Chinese companies have bought U.S. LNG and then sold it to buyers in other countries.
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Week ended Jul 10 Actual |
Week ended Jul 3 Actual |
Year ago Jul 10 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jul 10 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+41 |
+61 |
+47 |
+45 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
3,024 |
2,983 |
3,045 |
2,843 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.4% |
+6.6% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.91 |
2.92 |
3.30 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
18.25 |
18.43 |
9.98 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
19.93 |
16.66 |
12.53 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
239 |
238 |
219 |
213 |
203 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
242 |
241 |
222 |
216 |
206 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.7 |
110.7 |
110.4 |
107.6 |
101.4 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.5 |
8.0 |
7.1 |
N/A |
8.2 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
117.2 |
118.7 |
117.5 |
N/A |
109.6 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.1 |
7.0 |
7.2 |
N/A |
6.6 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.8 |
16.9 |
17.0 |
16.0 |
11.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
U.S. Residential |
3.8 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant |
46.1 |
47.7 |
46.7 |
47.7 |
46.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.6 |
21.6 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
83.5 |
85.0 |
84.1 |
85.7 |
84.9 |
Total U.S. Demand |
110.7 |
111.3 |
110.7 |
N/A |
104.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
83 |
83 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
90 |
90 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
93 |
93 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended July 17 |
Week ended July 10 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
6 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
8 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
45 |
43 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
19 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
17 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.80 |
2.76 |
3.20 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.47 |
2.73 |
2.87 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
2.55 |
2.68 |
3.45 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.27 |
2.39 |
2.61 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.66 |
2.73 |
2.95 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.71 |
3.12 |
4.50 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
3.45 |
3.59 |
3.70 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
1.78 |
1.83 |
1.57 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.26 |
1.20 |
0.51 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
72.66 |
179.07 |
89.06 |
77.12 |
61.67 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
338.79 |
419.99 |
87.25 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
43.61 |
71.14 |
52.17 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
46.50 |
63.92 |
48.82 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
38.60 |
47.35 |
33.95 |
28.44 |
53.02 |