UPDATE 1-US natgas prices gain over 2% on higher demand forecasts, rising oil futures
U.S. Global Investors, Inc. Class A GROW | 0.00 |
Adds latest prices
July 22 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose to a near one-week high on Wednesday, supported by summer cooling demand and gains in oil prices, while investors awaited a federal storage report due this week.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 6 cents, or 2.1% higher, at $2.925 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly gas storage report is due on Thursday.
"We've got the summer weather across most of the country, and that's keeping natural gas demand for air conditioning. Technically, the prices are a little on the oversold condition, meaning we could see a kind of a technical rally," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy trading at StoneX Financial.
Meteorologists forecast mostly warmer-than-normal temperatures through August 5, with power generators burning lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise slightly from 110.1 bcfd this week to 110.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Oil prices rose to their highest in almost six weeks, with Brent crude surpassing $95 a barrel, on mounting concerns about disruptions to Middle East supply routes because of escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran and threats to shipping by the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen. O/R
LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 110.0 bcfd in June, but remained below the monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants eased to 17.3 bcfd so far in July due in part to maintenance at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas, down from 17.4 bcfd in June and the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
"We are leaving open the possibility of a significant tightening in supply next month if LNG exports can pick up again amid what could still prove to be an exceptionally hot summer," consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.
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Week ended Jul 17 Forecast |
Week ended Jul 10 Actual |
Year ago Jul 17 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jul 17 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+35 |
+41 |
+27 |
+30 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
3,059 |
3,024 |
3,072 |
2,873 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.5% |
+6.4% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.87 |
2.87 |
3.30 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
21.48 |
20.03 |
9.98 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
21.34 |
21.03 |
12.53 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
3 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
200 |
239 |
185 |
185 |
177 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
203 |
242 |
187 |
187 |
180 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
110.9 |
110.7 |
110.9 |
107.9 |
101.4 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.9 |
7.2 |
7.0 |
N/A |
8.2 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
118.8 |
117.9 |
117.9 |
N/A |
109.6 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.0 |
6.9 |
7.1 |
N/A |
6.6 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.0 |
16.9 |
17.5 |
15.6 |
11.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
U.S. Residential |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant |
48.0 |
46.6 |
46.0 |
44.9 |
46.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.6 |
21.6 |
21.7 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
85.3 |
83.9 |
83.4 |
83.0 |
84.9 |
Total U.S. Demand |
111.5 |
110.1 |
110.2 |
N/A |
104.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
83 |
83 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
90 |
90 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
93 |
93 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended July 24 |
Week ended July 17 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
7 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
8 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
4 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
43 |
44 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
19 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
17 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.80 |
2.80 |
3.20 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.10 |
2.10 |
2.87 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
3.16 |
2.98 |
3.45 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.02 |
2.00 |
2.61 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.61 |
2.61 |
2.95 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.59 |
2.35 |
4.50 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
3.94 |
3.63 |
3.70 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
2.35 |
2.26 |
1.57 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.43 |
1.03 |
0.51 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
56.03 |
51.43 |
89.06 |
77.12 |
61.67 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
62.49 |
64.23 |
87.25 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
90.14 |
97.81 |
52.17 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
70.50 |
67.98 |
48.82 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
49.84 |
51.97 |
33.95 |
28.44 |
53.02 |