UPDATE 1-US natgas prices hit 16-week high as heat and demand rise, small storage build
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | 0.00 |
Adds EIA storage data, latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, June 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed over 3% to a 16-week high on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage build, forecasts for warmer weather and higher demand than previously expected next week and a continued drop in output in recent days.
Front-month gas futures for July delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 11 cents, or 3.4%, to $3.324 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since February 6.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 95 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended May 29.
That was smaller than the 101-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 119 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 101 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND:
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states dropped to 108.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from 109.7 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, output fell by 3.1 bcfd over the past six days to a preliminary four-month low of 107.4 bcfd on Thursday due mostly to declines in Texas and Arkansas. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 19, which should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 98.4 bcfd this week to 100.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from 17.1 bcfd in May to 16.3 bcfd so far in June due to ongoing spring maintenance at several plants, including ExxonMobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass facility and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
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Week ended May 29 Actual |
Week ended May 22 Actual |
Year ago May 29 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 29 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+95 |
+92 |
+119 |
+101 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,578 |
2,483 |
2,581 |
2,440 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+5.7% |
+6.2% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.27 |
3.21 |
3.64 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
16.58 |
16.69 |
12.38 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
18.82 |
18.61 |
13.05 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
8 |
8 |
20 |
20 |
21 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
188 |
172 |
138 |
138 |
135 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
196 |
180 |
158 |
158 |
156 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.8 |
109.4 |
109.5 |
105.8 |
100.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.5 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
N/A |
7.7 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
116.3 |
116.0 |
115.8 |
N/A |
108.3 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.6 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.5 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
N/A |
6.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.1 |
16.6 |
17.0 |
13.9 |
12.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
5.0 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
U.S. Residential |
4.5 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
U.S. Power Plant |
34.4 |
34.6 |
36.6 |
35.3 |
39.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.7 |
21.7 |
21.6 |
22.3 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
73.0 |
72.6 |
74.1 |
73.8 |
78.5 |
Total U.S. Demand |
100.2 |
98.4 |
100.5 |
N/A |
99.5 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
89 |
89 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
93 |
93 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
98 |
97 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended Jun 5 |
Week ended May 29 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
12 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
11 |
10 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
8 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
37 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
13 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
19 |
20 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.97 |
2.97 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.14 |
1.89 |
2.34 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.78 |
1.66 |
3.12 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.01 |
1.87 |
2.17 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.68 |
2.64 |
2.76 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.30 |
2.01 |
2.97 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.72 |
2.65 |
3.59 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-0.81 |
-1.58 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.29 |
1.32 |
0.64 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
52.96 |
48.92 |
60.18 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
56.32 |
41.65 |
70.06 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
7.59 |
9.24 |
42.59 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
25.40 |
17.20 |
38.53 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
9.54 |
7.00 |
22.51 |
28.44 |
53.02 |