UPDATE 1-US natgas prices settle at 2-week high on LNG flows, warmer weather outlook
U.S. Global Investors, Inc. Class A GROW | 0.00 |
Updates to settlement
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, June 22 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures settled at a two-week high on Monday on rising gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and revised forecasts for warmer weather and higher air conditioning demand over the next two weeks.
Front-month gas futures for July delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.0 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $3.253 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since June 4.
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states held at 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, the same as May. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual. They projected the amount of gas in inventories remained around 5.8% above normal during the week ended June 19, the same as during the previous week. The federal storage report for last week comes out on Thursday. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through July 7, which should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 103.4 bcfd this week to 106.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook last week.
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 17.2 bcfd so far in June, up from 17.1 bcfd in May as liquefaction trains, including at Freeport LNG, exited outages.
That compares with a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
There are currently two LNG vessels going directly from the U.S. to China. One tanker, the LNG Sakura, left Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland in mid-May and is expected to reach China around June 25, according to LSEG data. The other vessel is on track to reach China in mid-July.
No LNG tanker has left a U.S. export plant and gone directly to China during U.S. President Donald Trump's second term, which started in January 2025, due primarily to trade disputes between the world's two biggest economies.
China, which imported a large amount of U.S. gas in the past and has many contracts to buy U.S. LNG, is the world's biggest gas importer, while the U.S. is the world's biggest gas producer, consumer and exporter. Chinese companies have bought U.S. LNG and then sold it to buyers in other countries.
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Week ended Jun 19 Forecast |
Week ended Jun 12 Actual |
Year ago Jun 19 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 19 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+80 |
+73 |
+96 |
+75 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,839 |
2,759 |
2,884 |
2,683 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+5.8% |
+5.8% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.29 |
3.23 |
3.64 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
14.30 |
14.17 |
12.38 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
15.32 |
15.82 |
13.05 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
4 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
213 |
190 |
211 |
190 |
175 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
217 |
196 |
217 |
196 |
182 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
110.2 |
110.6 |
110.8 |
107.2 |
100.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.1 |
6.7 |
6.6 |
N/A |
7.7 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
117.4 |
117.3 |
117.4 |
N/A |
108.3 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.3 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.5 |
7.4 |
7.4 |
N/A |
6.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.7 |
17.7 |
17.9 |
14.6 |
12.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
U.S. Residential |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
U.S. Power Plant |
39.2 |
39.1 |
41.9 |
44.7 |
39.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.7 |
21.6 |
21.7 |
22.3 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
76.4 |
76.2 |
79.1 |
82.7 |
78.5 |
Total U.S. Demand |
103.9 |
103.4 |
106.6 |
N/A |
99.5 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
84 |
85 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
89 |
90 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
94 |
95 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended June 26 |
Week ended June 19 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
12 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
10 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
37 |
40 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
15 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
19 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.08 |
3.25 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.18 |
2.43 |
2.34 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.85 |
1.96 |
3.12 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.12 |
2.30 |
2.17 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.71 |
2.62 |
2.76 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.26 |
2.50 |
2.97 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
3.61 |
3.59 |
3.59 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
1.95 |
1.81 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.20 |
1.25 |
0.64 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
46.00 |
54.58 |
60.18 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
53.86 |
120.54 |
70.06 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
30.15 |
14.92 |
42.59 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
28.50 |
22.25 |
38.53 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
16.15 |
4.13 |
22.51 |
28.44 |
53.02 |