UPDATE 1-US natural gas futures hover near one-week low as demand outlook slips
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 26 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a one-week low on Tuesday after the long U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend on forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected.
On its second-to-last day as the front-month, gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.3 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $2.894 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since May 14 for a second day in a row.
Futures for July NGN26, which will soon be the front-month, were also little changed at around $3.01 per mmBtu.
Looking forward, the 12-month NG12Mst and year-ahead NGYstc1 futures strips both fell to their lowest since December 2024.
In the cash market, average gas prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 76 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
In the West, mild weather and ample hydropower supplies pushed spot power prices at South Path 15 W-SP15-IDX in Southern California into negative territory for the 12th time this year.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual.
But they noted recent output declines coupled with higher demand in recent weeks likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 6% above normal during the week ended May 22, down from roughly 7% above normal during the week ended May 15. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking forward, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through June 10.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 99.7 bcfd this week to 98.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while the forecast for next week was lower.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.0 bcfd so far in May due to spring maintenance at several plants, including ExxonMobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.
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Week ended May 22 Forecast |
Week ended May 15 Actual |
Year ago May 22 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 22 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+90 |
+101 |
+104 |
+97 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,481 |
2,391 |
2,462 |
2,339 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.1% |
+6.6% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.93 |
2.91 |
3.46 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
15.90 |
15.68 |
11.68 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
18.81 |
18.92 |
11.83 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
21 |
26 |
33 |
30 |
34 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
122 |
114 |
113 |
120 |
113 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
143 |
140 |
146 |
150 |
147 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.6 |
110.1 |
110.3 |
106.0 |
100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.5 |
6.3 |
6.5 |
N/A |
7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
116.1 |
116.3 |
116.8 |
N/A |
107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
N/A |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.6 |
7.5 |
7.3 |
N/A |
6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
16.7 |
17.1 |
17.3 |
14.9 |
12.9 |
U.S. Commercial |
5.3 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
5.9 |
U.S. Residential |
5.1 |
4.6 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant |
32.6 |
33.8 |
33.1 |
32.3 |
30.6 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.8 |
21.6 |
21.6 |
22.3 |
22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
72.2 |
72.4 |
71.1 |
71.4 |
73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
99.1 |
99.7 |
98.3 |
N/A |
94.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
89 |
89 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
93 |
92 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
97 |
97 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended May 29 |
Week ended May 22 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
10 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
10 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
38 |
37 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
14 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
21 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.92 |
3.15 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
1.87 |
2.01 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.67 |
1.63 |
2.89 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
1.84 |
2.02 |
2.25 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.45 |
2.52 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.08 |
2.13 |
2.82 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.38 |
2.38 |
2.98 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-3.38 |
-3.18 |
1.34 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.19 |
1.21 |
1.32 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
46.00 |
33.55 |
40.31 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
57.83 |
35.59 |
43.04 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
8.07 |
32.63 |
39.90 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
9.88 |
20.00 |
29.10 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
-2.00 |
2.51 |
17.36 |
28.44 |
53.02 |