UPDATE 2-Swedish government cuts 2026 GDP growth outlook to 2.3% from 2.8%

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- The Swedish government on Wednesday lowered its economic growth forecast for the country this year to 2.3%, due to the economic fallout from the war in the Middle East, from an estimated 2.8% growth in mid-April.

The government, which is facing a general election in September, raised its forecast for 2027 to 2.7% from 2.5%.

"What has happened in the Strait of Hormuz ...worsens the growth outlook across the globe and of course in Sweden as well," Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson said. "But having growth at a bit over 2% and low inflation ... is positive for Sweden going forward."

Still, uncertainty is high, not least over how long the conflict will last.

In a fresh outlook this week, banking group SEB forecast the Middle East conflict would only knock a couple of tenths off GDP growth, which would come in at 2.6% for the full year.

Swedbank, however, cut its forecast to 1.8% from 2.6%.


SET TO FARE BETTER THAN EURO ZONE

The economy is, nevertheless, expected to fare better than the euro zone, where growth is seen at around 1.0%.

Sweden is less dependent than many countries on imported oil and gas - electricity generation is mostly fossil free - and so far the effects of the Middle East conflict have been muted.

Growth was weak in the first quarter - before the war started - but a bumper, tax-cutting budget aimed at winning over voters ahead of the September general election is expected to support households and keep activity brisk.

Underlying inflation pressure is also low, making Sweden an outlier in Europe.

The central bank, which announces its next monetary policy decision on Thursday, is expected to keep rates unchanged this year.