UPDATE 2-US natgas futures edge up, cash prices in Texas and California at record lows
Adds closing prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, April 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Thursday following a drop in output over the past few days and forecasts for more demand than previously expected over the next two weeks.
Front-month gas futures for May delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.7 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $2.647 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 59 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 10.
That was bigger than the 51-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with increases of 22 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021 to 2025) average increase of 38 bcf for the period. Analysts said they expected a bigger-than-normal build because mild weather last week kept heating demand low. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
In the cash market, spot power and gas prices in parts of Texas and California traded in negative or record-low territory this week as mild weather kept both heating and cooling use low, allowing ample amounts of hydro and other renewable sources of energy to meet more demand.
Next-day gas prices fell to record lows of negative $9.56 per mmBtu at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas and positive $1.16 at the PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL in Northern California. For PG&E, that was the fourth daily record low in a row.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from 110.4 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 3.2 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary 10-week low of 108.0 bcfd on Thursday due mostly to declines in Louisiana and Ohio. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day.
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through May 1, keeping both heating and cooling demand low.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 101.3 bcfd this week to 100.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.9 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February.
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Week ended April 10 Actual |
Week ended April 3 Actual |
Year ago April 10 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) April 10 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+59 |
+50 |
+22 |
+38 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
1,970 |
1,911 |
1,844 |
1,862 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+5.8% |
+4.8% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.61 |
2.61 |
3.43 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
14.44 |
14.93 |
11.48 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
15.78 |
19.35 |
12.23 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
120 |
117 |
110 |
148 |
136 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
41 |
46 |
49 |
38 |
37 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
161 |
163 |
159 |
186 |
173 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
111.3 |
109.8 |
110.1 |
106.8 |
99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.8 |
6.8 |
6.5 |
N/A |
7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
118.1 |
116.6 |
116.7 |
N/A |
107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
N/A |
2.5 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
6.1 |
6.3 |
6.1 |
N/A |
6.1 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
18.6 |
18.7 |
18.7 |
16.1 |
13.1 |
U.S. Commercial |
8.9 |
6.4 |
7.1 |
7.7 |
8.6 |
U.S. Residential |
12.0 |
7.5 |
8.7 |
9.9 |
11.4 |
U.S. Power Plant |
28.8 |
30.1 |
27.3 |
29.5 |
27.2 |
U.S. Industrial |
23.4 |
22.3 |
22.9 |
22.9 |
23.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.5 |
5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
81.0 |
73.9 |
73.5 |
77.8 |
79.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
108.2 |
101.3 |
100.8 |
N/A |
100.7 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
95 |
97 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
97 |
99 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
102 |
103 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended Apr 17 |
Week ended Apr 10 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
19 |
15 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
8 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
6 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
34 |
35 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
13 |
13 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
18 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.78 |
2.79 |
3.41 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.18 |
2.40 |
2.81 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.16 |
1.17 |
2.63 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.09 |
2.08 |
2.69 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.18 |
2.22 |
3.03 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.95 |
2.34 |
3.15 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
1.77 |
1.82 |
2.94 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-9.56 |
-5.91 |
1.38 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
0.87 |
0.85 |
1.60 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
64.28 |
66.30 |
42.26 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
124.53 |
120.06 |
50.50 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
11.46 |
13.44 |
26.45 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
10.67 |
9.00 |
25.26 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
1.04 |
0.63 |
9.76 |
28.44 |
53.02 |