UPDATE 2-US natgas futures jump 8% to 15-week high on small storage build, tighter demand outlook
U.S. Global Investors, Inc. Class A GROW | 0.00 |
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 8% on Thursday to a 15-week high, on a smaller-than-usual weekly storage build, expiration of the lower-priced June contract and upwardly revised two-week demand forecasts.
On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for July delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 24.5 cents, or 8.1%, to settle at $3.285 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since February 6.
The rally pushed the July contract into technically overbought territory for the first time since mid-May, a measure traders use to determine when selling pressure might emerge.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 92 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended May 22, slightly smaller than the 95-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll.
It compares with an increase of 104 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 97 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
In the cash market, gas prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas rose to their highest since early February, though still in negative territory, as demand for the fuel rises with summer's approach and as pipeline companies start to wrap up spring maintenance.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual.
But they noted recent output declines likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 6% above normal during the week ended May 22, down from roughly 7% above normal during the week ended May 15. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking forward, meteorologists forecast weather will remain mostly near normal through June 12.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 99.6 bcfd this week to 98.2 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.1 bcfd so far in May due to spring maintenance at several plants, including ExxonMobil/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.
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Week ended May 22 Actual |
Week ended May 15 Actual |
Year ago May 22 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 22 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+92 |
+101 |
+104 |
+97 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,483 |
2,391 |
2,462 |
2,339 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.2% |
+6.6% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.08 |
3.10 |
3.46 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
16.47 |
15.84 |
11.68 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
18.24 |
18.43 |
11.83 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
19 |
20 |
33 |
30 |
31 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
138 |
130 |
113 |
120 |
117 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
157 |
150 |
146 |
150 |
148 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.6 |
109.5 |
109.8 |
106.0 |
100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
N/A |
7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
116.1 |
116.0 |
116.3 |
N/A |
107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
N/A |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.6 |
7.7 |
7.4 |
N/A |
6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
16.7 |
17.1 |
17.3 |
14.9 |
12.9 |
U.S. Commercial |
5.3 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
5.9 |
U.S. Residential |
5.1 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant |
32.6 |
34.1 |
33.5 |
32.3 |
30.6 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.8 |
21.6 |
21.6 |
22.3 |
22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
72.2 |
72.7 |
71.5 |
71.4 |
73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
99.1 |
100.0 |
98.7 |
N/A |
94.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
89 |
89 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
93 |
93 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
98 |
98 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended May 29 |
Week ended May 22 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
10 |
14 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
9 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
39 |
37 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
15 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
20 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.13 |
3.10 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.18 |
2.22 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.71 |
1.71 |
2.89 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.15 |
2.13 |
2.25 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.61 |
2.58 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.35 |
2.58 |
2.82 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.49 |
2.56 |
2.98 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-0.46 |
-2.00 |
1.34 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.27 |
1.28 |
1.32 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
42.56 |
52.29 |
40.31 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
45.55 |
61.48 |
43.04 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
3.27 |
16.41 |
39.90 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
7.50 |
7.50 |
29.10 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
2.25 |
1.74 |
17.36 |
28.44 |
53.02 |