Updates to settlement

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, July 23 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a one-week high on Thursday as oil futures jumped, a gas storage build was smaller than expected, and forecasters predicted hotter weather and higher gas demand.

Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.9 cent, or 0.3%, to settle at $2.916 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Wednesday, the contract closed at its highest since July 10.

Oil futures CLc1 jumped about 6% on worries that supply disruptions in the Middle East would increase after the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen attacked Saudi tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 32 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended July 17, slightly below the 35-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll. There was an increase of 27 bcf during the same week last year and the five-year (2021-2025) average increase was 30 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 110.0 bcfd in June, but remained below the monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through August 7, forcing power generators to continue burning lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold at 111.0 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants eased to 17.2 bcfd so far in July due in part to maintenance at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas, down from 17.4 bcfd in June and the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas.

Global gas prices have spiked in recent years primarily due to supply disruptions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran this year.

Around the world, gas was trading near a 42-month high of around $21 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and a four-month high of about $22 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. [NG/EU]

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA

In the Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Bertha would continue moving west across the Gulf Coast from Louisiana toward Texas, crossing several Gulf Coast LNG export plants.

Energy analysts noted the storm would likely reduce gas demand by bringing cooler, rainy weather, knocking out power to homes and businesses, and possibly causing some LNG export plants to reduce output.

So far, however, there have been few power outages and no major changes in feedgas flows to LNG export plants.

The analysts said tropical storms could disrupt gas flows on pipelines but usually do not reduce output by much, since most U.S. gas production is located far inland in the Marcellus/Utica shale in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia and the Permian basin in West Texas and New Mexico.

Only about 2% of total U.S. gas output comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico.

	Week ended Jul 17 Actual	Week ended Jul 10 Actual	Year ago Jul 17	Five-year average (2021-2025) Jul 17
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+32	+41	+27	+30
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,056	3,024	3,072	2,873
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.4%	+6.4%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.95	2.93	3.30	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	20.62	20.95	9.98	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	22.00	21.34	12.53	12.24	18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Total Two-Week Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	1	3	3	2	3
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	244	231	207	212	201
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	245	234	210	214	204
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	110.9	110.5	110.5	107.9	101.4
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.9	7.2	7.0	N/A	8.2
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	118.8	117.7	117.5	N/A	109.6
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.3	2.3	2.3	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.0	6.6	7.0	N/A	6.6
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	17.0	16.9	17.5	15.6	11.0
U.S. Commercial	4.3	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.7
U.S. Residential	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.6	3.6
U.S. Power Plant	48.0	46.8	46.9	44.9	46.1
U.S. Industrial	21.6	21.6	21.6	22.2	21.8
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.3	2.2	2.2	2.3	3.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	85.3	84.1	84.2	83.0	84.9
Total U.S. Demand	111.5	110.0	110.0	N/A	104.8
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	83	83	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	90	90	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	93	93	80	77	76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended July 24	Week ended July 17	2025	2024	2023
Wind	7	6	11	11	10
Solar	8	8	6	5	4
Hydro	4	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	44	45	40	42	41
Coal	19	19	18	16	17
Nuclear	17	17	18	19	19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub	2.93	2.80	3.20	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York	2.05	2.10	2.87	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate	3.18	3.16	3.45	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South)	1.99	2.02	2.61	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate	2.62	2.59	2.95	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate	2.17	2.29	4.50	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate	3.98	3.94	3.70	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub	2.45	2.35	1.57	1.15	2.88
AECO	1.14	1.01	0.51	1.13	2.13
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England	44.95	56.03	89.06	77.12	61.67
PJM West	40.97	62.49	87.25	60.23	54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C)	54.04	90.14	52.17	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde	63.69	70.50	48.82	34.82	59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15)	48.38	49.84	33.95	28.44	53.02