UPDATE 2-US natural gas futures hit three-week high as output drops and LNG exports stay strong
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, April 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 5% to a three-week high on Thursday on forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected, near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and a drop in output over the last month.
Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 12.0 cents, or 4.5%, to settle at $2.767 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since April 7.
Despite the daily increase, the front-month was down about 4% in April after posting a gain of about 1% in March.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 24. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
That was in line with the 80-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 105 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 63 bcf for the period. Analysts noted the build was bigger than usual for this time of year because mild weather last week kept heating demand low.
RECORD STRETCH IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 59 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 68 times so far this year.
Waha prices have averaged a negative $2.16 per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with a positive $1.15 in 2025 and a positive $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 110.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 110.4 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, output was down even more, falling by around 2.0 bcfd over the last five days to a preliminary 12-week low of 107.6 bcfd on Thursday as low spot prices prompted energy firms like EQT EQT.N, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to temporarily reduce production. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day.
Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain slightly cooler than normal through May 15. Cool weather in May does not usually generate much heating demand but reduces early spring air conditioning use.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 102.9 bcfd this week to 99.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.8 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February.
|
Week ended April 24 Actual |
Week ended April 17 Actual |
Year ago April 24 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) April 24 |
|
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+79 |
+103 |
+105 |
+63 |
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,142 |
2,063 |
2,026 |
1,989 |
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+7.7% |
+7.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.62 |
2.65 |
3.43 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
16.06 |
16.27 |
11.48 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
16.97 |
16.48 |
12.23 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
|
|
|
|
|
Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
110 |
113 |
75 |
102 |
91 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
50 |
50 |
54 |
56 |
56 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
160 |
163 |
129 |
158 |
147 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.2 |
109.0 |
109.5 |
105.3 |
99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.7 |
6.8 |
6.4 |
N/A |
7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
115.9 |
115.9 |
115.9 |
N/A |
107.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.4 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
N/A |
2.5 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
6.8 |
6.5 |
6.4 |
N/A |
6.1 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
18.7 |
18.1 |
17.8 |
15.8 |
13.1 |
U.S. Commercial |
7.2 |
6.6 |
6.5 |
6.0 |
8.6 |
U.S. Residential |
8.6 |
7.8 |
7.4 |
6.8 |
11.4 |
U.S. Power Plant |
29.4 |
31.4 |
29.2 |
30.9 |
27.2 |
U.S. Industrial |
22.9 |
22.7 |
23.0 |
22.4 |
23.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
75.5 |
76.1 |
73.6 |
73.6 |
79.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
103.4 |
102.9 |
99.9 |
N/A |
100.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
N/A = Not Available |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
92 |
91 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
95 |
95 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
99 |
99 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Week ended May 1 |
Week ended Apr 24 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
15 |
16 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
9 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
37 |
35 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
13 |
13 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
18 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.60 |
2.70 |
3.41 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.05 |
2.06 |
2.81 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.16 |
1.20 |
2.63 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
1.97 |
1.97 |
2.69 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.42 |
2.42 |
3.03 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.33 |
2.30 |
3.15 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
1.91 |
1.92 |
2.94 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-2.89 |
-4.50 |
1.38 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
0.79 |
0.84 |
1.60 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
56.23 |
42.26 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
|
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
82.31 |
50.50 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
|
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
8.54 |
26.45 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
|
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
17.00 |
25.26 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
|
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
2.71 |
9.76 |
28.44 |
53.02 |