UPDATE 2-US natural gas futures rise as storage build lags forecasts, output declines
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected weekly storage build, a decline in output in recent weeks and forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.9 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $2.769 per million British thermal units. On Wednesday, the contract closed at its lowest since April 29.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added just 63 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended May 1.
That was smaller than the 74 bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 104 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 77 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from 109.5 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 3.3 bcfd over the last three days to a preliminary one-week low of 106.8 bcfd on Thursday as low spot gas prices in recent months have prompted some energy firms like EQT EQT.N, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to reduce production as they wait for prices to rise. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 22 with cooling demand starting to overtake heating demand.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 99.7 bcfd this week to 98.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 17.2 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 18.8 bcfd in April.
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Week ended May 1 Actual |
Week ended April 24 Actual |
Year ago May 1 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 1 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+63 |
+79 |
+104 |
+77 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,205 |
2,142 |
2,130 |
2,066 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.7% |
+7.7% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.72 |
2.73 |
3.46 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
14.99 |
15.10 |
11.68 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
16.85 |
17.04 |
11.83 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
62 |
63 |
55 |
81 |
73 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
88 |
87 |
71 |
69 |
69 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
150 |
150 |
126 |
150 |
142 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
108.2 |
109.1 |
110.0 |
105.1 |
100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.8 |
6.4 |
6.8 |
N/A |
7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
115.0 |
115.5 |
116.8 |
N/A |
107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.1 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
N/A |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
6.6 |
6.7 |
6.8 |
N/A |
6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
18.2 |
17.0 |
17.3 |
14.7 |
12.9 |
U.S. Commercial |
6.7 |
6.4 |
5.6 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
U.S. Residential |
7.9 |
7.2 |
5.8 |
6.5 |
6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant |
31.7 |
29.5 |
31.0 |
31.2 |
30.6 |
U.S. Industrial |
22.4 |
22.6 |
22.1 |
22.7 |
22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.3 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
76.2 |
73.3 |
71.9 |
73.8 |
73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
103.1 |
99.7 |
98.6 |
N/A |
94.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
89 |
89 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
93 |
93 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
98 |
98 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended May 8 |
Week ended May 1 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
14 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
10 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
35 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
13 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
20 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.75 |
2.83 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.10 |
1.95 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.52 |
1.54 |
2.89 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
1.98 |
1.86 |
2.25 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.49 |
2.60 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.19 |
2.17 |
2.82 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.33 |
2.40 |
2.98 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-3.84 |
-3.92 |
1.34 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.25 |
1.16 |
1.32 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
60.56 |
51.09 |
40.31 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
63.81 |
72.17 |
43.04 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
22.53 |
25.35 |
39.90 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
18.00 |
17.50 |
29.10 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
4.52 |
9.28 |
17.36 |
28.44 |
53.02 |