Adds shares, details from conference call, analyst comments in paragraphs 5-13

By Vallari Srivastava

April 30 (Reuters) - ConocoPhillips COP.N on Thursday forecast lower annual output after the shale producer excluded Qatar from its near-term outlook, citing disruption to its liquefied natural gas operations in the country due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

ConocoPhillips is a partner in QatarEnergy's LNG export plant, one of the world's largest producers of the superchilled gas. Iranian attacks on the facility had knocked out about a sixth of Qatar's LNG export capacity.

Output from ConocoPhillips' investments in Qatar, which stood at roughly $1.8 billion as of March 31, accounted for 4% of the company's total production in 2025.

The impact of the conflict remained limited to the N3 LNG joint venture with QatarEnergy, ConocoPhillips executive Kirk Johnson said.

"The remainder of our global portfolio has been largely unaffected by these recent events."

QatarEnergy has said it expects to restart production in the second half of 2026, but Johnson said it could "extend into the early part of next year".

The N3 project is ConocoPhillips' only producing asset in Qatar and its exclusion, while statistically minor, carries a disproportionate psychological effect, Julia Khandoshko, CEO of European broker Mind Money, said.

ConocoPhillips shares were down 2%.

It expects current-quarter production of 2.185 to 2.215 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, reflecting a reduction of about 20,000 boed linked to Qatar volumes.

For the full year, it expects daily production to be between 2.29 and 2.325 mmboepd, which also includes the impact of higher royalty rates at its Surmont oil sands project in Canada. It had previously forecast 2.33 to 2.36 mmboepd.

The shale producer expects annual capital expenditures to be between $12 billion and $12.5 billion.

"While the guidance reset created a ripple effect, it does not amount to a tsunami," Khandoshko said, adding that ConocoPhillips "looks nicely equipped to withstand the current oil market volatility."

During the first quarter, the Houston-based company's average realized prices dropped 6% to $50.36 per barrel of oil equivalent, due to weaker gas prices. Net income fell 23% to $2.18 billion.