US Home Sales Could Near 5 Million Despite Elevated Mortgage Rates, Analyst Says
HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami pushed back against bearish views on the U.S. housing market on Sunday, saying total U.S. home sales could approach 5 million this year despite elevated mortgage rates.
“We will have near 5,000,000 total home sales in 2026, the peak in the last decade with rates between 3.25%-5% was around 6,000,000,” Mohtashami wrote in a post on X.
Mohtashami was responding to claims that 7% mortgage rates would trigger a housing market collapse. His comments accompanied a new HousingWire analysis, which found housing demand continued to post year-over-year gains even as mortgage rates remained elevated and the Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance.
HousingWire’s latest weekly data also showed pending home sales, purchase applications and inventory remained above year-ago levels, although demand has softened as mortgage rates moved above Mohtashami’s 6.64% threshold.
Demand Remains Resilient
In the report, Mohtashami credited improved mortgage spreads and slower home-price growth relative to wage gains for helping affordability this year. He argued that without tighter mortgage spreads, 30-year mortgage rates could have been well above 7%, placing far greater pressure on homebuyers, according to HousingWire.
HousingWire’s data also showed active inventory rose to 872,932 listings, while weekly pending home sales increased to 69,109 from 68,413 during the same week last year, suggesting demand has slowed but remains positive on an annual basis.
Mortgage Rates Still Loom
On Sunday, The Kobeissi Letter warned that mortgage rates were nearing 7%, saying higher borrowing costs could discourage homeowners with low-rate mortgages from selling and further slow the U.S. housing market.
Earlier in July, Mohtashami said mortgage rates were likely to remain within a 6.5% to 6.75% range despite softer inflation, arguing that the Federal Reserve’s hawkish messaging and geopolitical uncertainty continued to keep long-term borrowing costs elevated.
Later that month, The Kobeissi Letter, citing Redfin data, said U.S. housing affordability was “deteriorating again” as home prices reached another record. Mohtashami said mortgage rates had largely remained within his projected range.
At the beginning of July, Mortgage Bankers Association data also showed mortgage demand was largely unchanged as elevated borrowing costs continued to weigh on affordability, with borrowers increasingly avoiding adjustable-rate mortgages in favor of fixed-rate loans.
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