US natgas eases ahead of storage report as Iran deal hopes weigh
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased to a one-week low on Thursday after news the U.S. and Iran were nearing a temporary agreement to end the Iran war, and on a drop in flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants during the spring maintenance season.
Oil futures CLc1, LCOc1 were down about 5% after dropping about 7% on Wednesday on the Iran war news, which put pressure on the entire energy complex.
Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.0 cents, or 1.1%, to $2.70 per million British thermal units, putting the contract on track for its lowest close since April 29 for a second day in a row.
That price decline precedes a federal report expected to show energy firms pulled a near-normal 74 billion cubic feet of gas from storage during the week ended May 1.
That compares with an increase of 104 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 77 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from 109.5 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 3.3 bcfd over the last three days to a preliminary one-week low of 106.8 bcfd on Thursday as low spot gas prices in recent months have prompted some energy firms like EQT EQT.N, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to reduce production as they wait for prices to rise. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 22 with cooling demand starting to overtake heating demand.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 99.7 bcfd this week to 98.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 17.2 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 18.8 bcfd in April.
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Week ended May 1 Forecast |
Week ended April 24 Actual |
Year ago May 1 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 1 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+74 |
+79 |
+104 |
+77 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,216 |
2,142 |
2,130 |
2,066 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+7.3% |
+7.7% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.72 |
2.73 |
3.46 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
14.99 |
15.10 |
11.68 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
16.85 |
17.04 |
11.83 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
62 |
63 |
55 |
81 |
73 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
88 |
87 |
71 |
69 |
69 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
150 |
150 |
126 |
150 |
142 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
108.2 |
109.1 |
110.0 |
105.1 |
100.1 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.8 |
6.4 |
6.8 |
N/A |
7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
115.0 |
115.5 |
116.8 |
N/A |
107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.1 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
N/A |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
6.6 |
6.7 |
6.8 |
N/A |
6.5 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
18.2 |
17.0 |
17.3 |
14.7 |
12.9 |
U.S. Commercial |
6.7 |
6.4 |
5.6 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
U.S. Residential |
7.9 |
7.2 |
5.8 |
6.5 |
6.3 |
U.S. Power Plant |
31.7 |
29.5 |
31.0 |
31.2 |
30.6 |
U.S. Industrial |
22.4 |
22.6 |
22.1 |
22.7 |
22.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.3 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
76.2 |
73.3 |
71.9 |
73.8 |
73.0 |
Total U.S. Demand |
103.1 |
99.7 |
98.6 |
N/A |
94.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
89 |
89 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
93 |
93 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
98 |
98 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended May 8 |
Week ended May 1 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
14 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
10 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
35 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
13 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
20 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.75 |
2.83 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.10 |
1.95 |
2.35 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.52 |
1.54 |
2.89 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
1.98 |
1.86 |
2.25 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.49 |
2.60 |
2.86 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.19 |
2.17 |
2.82 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.33 |
2.40 |
2.98 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-3.84 |
-3.92 |
1.34 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.25 |
1.16 |
1.32 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
60.56 |
51.09 |
40.31 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
63.81 |
72.17 |
43.04 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
22.53 |
25.35 |
39.90 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
18.00 |
17.50 |
29.10 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
4.52 |
9.28 |
17.36 |
28.44 |
53.02 |