US natgas falls 4% to 8-week low on milder weather outlook, lower LNG export flows
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, July 10 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% to an eight-week low on Friday on forecasts for less hot weather than previously expected over the next two weeks, an expected decline in flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants during maintenance at Freeport LNG in Texas, and ample amounts of gas in storage.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12.4 cents, or 4.1%, to $2.888 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since May 13.
That pushed the front-month into technically oversold territory for the first time since late April and put the contract on track to decline for a third week in a row for the first time since February. The contract was down about 9% so far this week.
For the year, futures for calendar 2027 NGCALYZ7 fell to $3.35 per mmBtu, their lowest since February 2022.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND:
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, down from 110.0 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual. They projected the amount of gas in inventories would hold at 6.6% above normal during the week ended July 10, the same as the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through July 25, keeping the amount of gas power generators burn high as homes and businesses crank up air conditioners. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 110.8 bcfd this week to 110.5 bcfd next week and 110.3 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 17.8 bcfd so far in July, up from 17.4 bcfd in June, but remain below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
That increase in average LNG feedgas came even with the reduction in flows to Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd export plant in Texas for planned work from July 10-late August.
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Week ended Jul 10 Forecast |
Week ended Jul 3 Actual |
Year ago Jul 10 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jul 10 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+48 |
+61 |
+47 |
+45 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
3,031 |
2,983 |
3,045 |
2,843 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.6% |
+6.6% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
2.93 |
3.01 |
3.30 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
16.29 |
16.68 |
9.98 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
16.58 |
16.51 |
12.53 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
2 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
233 |
239 |
217 |
209 |
201 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
235 |
241 |
221 |
211 |
205 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
110.5 |
109.6 |
110.1 |
106.2 |
101.4 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.2 |
7.5 |
7.2 |
N/A |
8.2 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
117.7 |
117.1 |
117.3 |
N/A |
109.6 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.2 |
7.1 |
7.2 |
N/A |
6.6 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.8 |
17.8 |
17.6 |
15.8 |
11.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
U.S. Residential |
3.6 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant |
41.1 |
46.2 |
46.1 |
46.4 |
46.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.7 |
21.6 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
78.3 |
83.6 |
83.3 |
84.1 |
84.9 |
Total U.S. Demand |
105.5 |
110.8 |
110.5 |
N/A |
104.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
83 |
83 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
89 |
90 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
93 |
93 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended July 10 |
Week ended July 3 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
7 |
13 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
9 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
43 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
19 |
17 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
17 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.17 |
3.29 |
3.20 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.53 |
2.55 |
2.87 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
2.24 |
2.14 |
3.45 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.39 |
2.48 |
2.61 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.72 |
2.81 |
2.95 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.75 |
3.10 |
4.50 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.90 |
3.06 |
3.70 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
1.63 |
1.72 |
1.57 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.12 |
1.24 |
0.51 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
73.19 |
69.39 |
89.06 |
77.12 |
61.67 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
112.45 |
126.82 |
87.25 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
31.52 |
31.82 |
52.17 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
39.83 |
41.57 |
48.82 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
27.02 |
26.53 |
33.95 |
28.44 |
53.02 |