US natgas futures ease on forecasts for lower demand
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Tuesday on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.5 cents, or 1.1%, to $3.21 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its highest price since June 29.
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has slid to 109.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, down from 110.0 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual.
They projected the amount of gas in inventories would hold around 6.4% above normal during the week ended July 3, similar to the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through July 22, keeping the amount of gas power generators burn high as homes and businesses crank up air conditioners. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 109.3 bcfd this week to 109.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 17.9 bcfd so far in July, up from 17.4 bcfd in June, but remained below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
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Week ended Jul 3 Forecast |
Week ended Jun 26 Actual |
Year ago Jun 26 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 26 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+52 |
+87 |
+53 |
+51 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,974 |
2,922 |
2,998 |
2,798 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.3% |
+6.4% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.28 |
3.25 |
3.30 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
15.33 |
14.80 |
9.98 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
16.07 |
16.08 |
12.53 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
2 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
235 |
234 |
217 |
209 |
198 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
237 |
236 |
221 |
211 |
202 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
110.5 |
108.9 |
109.3 |
106.2 |
101.4 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.2 |
7.2 |
7.0 |
N/A |
8.2 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
117.7 |
116.1 |
116.2 |
N/A |
109.6 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.2 |
7.0 |
7.2 |
N/A |
6.6 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.8 |
17.2 |
17.4 |
15.8 |
11.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
U.S. Residential |
3.6 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant |
41.1 |
45.6 |
45.6 |
46.4 |
46.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.7 |
21.6 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
78.3 |
82.8 |
82.8 |
84.1 |
84.9 |
Total U.S. Demand |
105.5 |
109.3 |
109.7 |
N/A |
104.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
83 |
83 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
90 |
89 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
93 |
93 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended July 10 |
Week ended July 3 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
7 |
13 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
9 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
42 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
19 |
17 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
18 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.29 |
3.34 |
3.20 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.28 |
2.69 |
2.87 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.89 |
1.24 |
3.45 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.33 |
2.51 |
2.61 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.76 |
2.72 |
2.95 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
3.64 |
3.53 |
4.50 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.86 |
1.89 |
3.70 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
1.87 |
0.80 |
1.57 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.12 |
0.95 |
0.51 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
50.25 |
53.00 |
89.06 |
77.12 |
61.67 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
61.72 |
79.42 |
87.25 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
39.82 |
38.37 |
52.17 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
37.25 |
38.16 |
48.82 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
25.72 |
17.72 |
33.95 |
28.44 |
53.02 |