US natgas futures fall as market sees bigger than normal storage build, lesser demand
June 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 3% on Wednesday as analysts anticipated the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly report would show a larger-than-normal build in stocks, and as a cooler weather forecast and easing demand also weighed.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded 10 cents lower, or 3.1%, to $3.14 per million British thermal units as of 10:20 a.m. ET.
"Relatively high storage inventories in the injection season have provided reassurance to market participants, due in part to strong associated gas production resulting from elevated oil prices over the past several months," said Zhen Zhu, managing consultant at C.H. Guernsey and Company in Oklahoma City.
Financial group LSEG showed average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states at 109.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, down from 109.7 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Global oil prices have been elevated since the onset of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran in late February. O/R
The U.S. EIA's weekly gas storage report is due on Thursday.
Analysts projected it would show the surplus of gas in inventory would rise to 6.1% above normal during the week ended June 12, up from about 6.0% above normal in the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
"Prices remain under bearish pressure primarily because robust domestic production has thus far been sufficient to meet the increase in demand during the early summer season," Zhu added.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 104.2 bcfd this week to 103 bcfd next week, as weather in the coming weeks is expected to be slightly cooler than previously expected.
Benchmark Dutch wholesale gas prices declined early on Wednesday as the market evaluated the prospects of a U.S.-Iran agreement and as higher temperatures are expected in Europe. NG/EU
|
Week ended Jun 12 Forecast |
Week ended Jun 5 Actual |
Year ago Jun 12 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 12 |
|
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+82 |
+108 |
+97 |
+73 |
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,768 |
2,686 |
2,788 |
2,608 |
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.1% |
+6.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.19 |
3.18 |
3.64 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
14.13 |
14.44 |
12.38 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
15.94 |
16.23 |
13.05 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
|
|
|
|
|
Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
6 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
191 |
184 |
195 |
172 |
163 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
197 |
191 |
204 |
181 |
173 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.1 |
110.1 |
110.5 |
106.8 |
100.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.0 |
7.1 |
6.7 |
N/A |
7.7 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
116.1 |
117.2 |
117.2 |
N/A |
108.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.3 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
N/A |
6.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
16.6 |
17.8 |
18.0 |
14.1 |
12.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.5 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
U.S. Residential |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
U.S. Power Plant |
39.5 |
39.5 |
38.2 |
38.8 |
39.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.6 |
21.7 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
76.9 |
76.8 |
75.4 |
76.7 |
78.5 |
Total U.S. Demand |
103.0 |
104.2 |
103.0 |
N/A |
99.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
N/A = Not Available |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
85 |
85 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
90 |
90 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
95 |
95 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Week ended Jun 19 |
Week ended June 12 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
13 |
13 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
9 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
39 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
15 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
17 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.10 |
3.06 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.45 |
2.24 |
2.34 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
2.13 |
2.24 |
3.12 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.35 |
2.10 |
2.17 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.68 |
2.66 |
2.76 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.50 |
2.77 |
2.97 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
3.55 |
3.55 |
3.59 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
0.94 |
0.42 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.75 |
1.25 |
0.64 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
47.68 |
47.68 |
60.18 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
50.61 |
35.45 |
70.06 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
17.19 |
3.79 |
42.59 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
35.00 |
34.00 |
38.53 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
16.47 |
26.56 |
22.51 |
28.44 |
53.02 |