By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, July 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased to a two-month low on Wednesday on rising output and lower flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants due to maintenance at Freeport LNG's facility in Texas.

Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.5 cents, or 1.2%, to $2.869 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since May 13.

Meteorologists forecast temperatures would top 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32.2 degrees Celsius) in many parts of the country on Wednesday, including New York and Chicago. That forecast compares with a normal high of 85 F in both cities for this time of year, according to weather forecaster AccuWeather.

As homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners to escape the heat, next-day power prices at the PJM Western Hub E-PJWHRTP-IX jumped 178% to around $420 per megawatt hour. The PJM Western Hub is located mostly in western Pennsylvania and the District of Columbia/Maryland metro area.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 110.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from 110.0 bcfd in June, but has remained below the monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual. As they wait for a federal report on Thursday, they projected the amount of gas in storage was 6.6% above normal during the week ended July 10, the same as the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through July 30, forcing power generators to burn lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 111.1 bcfd this week to 110.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 17.5 bcfd so far in July, up from 17.4 bcfd in June, but have remained below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to drop to a five-week low of 16.8 bcfd on Wednesday due mostly to a reduction in flows to Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd export plant in Texas for planned work from July 10 to late August.

In other LNG news, the Al Fat'h LNG tanker was on track to reach China on July 16 with a load of fuel from U.S. energy firm Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines export plant in Louisiana. The vessel left the U.S. in early June.

So far, no LNG tanker has left a U.S. export plant and gone directly to China during U.S. President Donald Trump's second term, which started in January 2025, due primarily to trade disputes between the world's two biggest economies.

China, which imported a large amount of U.S. gas in the past and has many contracts to buy U.S. LNG, is the world's biggest gas importer, while the U.S. is the world's biggest gas producer, consumer and exporter. Chinese companies have bought U.S. LNG and then sold it to buyers in other countries.

	Week ended Jul 10 Forecast	Week ended Jul 3 Actual	Year ago Jul 10	Five-year average (2021-2025) Jul 10
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+48	+61	+47	+45
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,031	2,983	3,045	2,843
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.6%	+6.6%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.90	2.90	3.30	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	18.24	17.93	9.98	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	16.66	16.53	12.53	12.24	18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	3	2	3	3	3
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	238	234	219	213	203
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	241	236	222	216	206
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.7	110.6	110.8	107.6	101.4
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.5	7.8	7.1	N/A	8.2
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	117.2	118.4	117.9	N/A	109.6
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.3	2.4	2.4	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.1	7.0	7.2	N/A	6.6
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	17.8	17.1	17.4	16.0	11.0
U.S. Commercial	4.3	4.3	4.4	4.4	4.7
U.S. Residential	3.8	3.5	3.6	3.6	3.6
U.S. Power Plant	46.1	47.3	46.0	47.7	46.1
U.S. Industrial	21.6	21.6	21.6	22.2	21.8
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	3.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	83.5	84.6	83.4	85.7	84.9
Total U.S. Demand	110.7	111.1	110.4	N/A	104.8
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	83	83	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	90	90	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	93	93	80	77	76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended July 17	Week ended July 10	2025	2024	2023
Wind	6	7	11	11	10
Solar	8	9	6	5	4
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	44	43	40	42	41
Coal	19	19	18	16	17
Nuclear	17	17	18	19	19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.76	2.83	3.20	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.73	2.60	2.87	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.68	2.66	3.45	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.39	2.37	2.61	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.73	2.61	2.95	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	3.12	3.22	4.50	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.59	3.37	3.70	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.83	1.73	1.57	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.20	1.13	0.51	1.13	2.13
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	179.07	130.71	89.06	77.12	61.67
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	419.99	150.82	87.25	60.23	54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX	71.14	58.72	52.17	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	63.92	57.33	48.82	34.82	59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX	47.35	44.93	33.95	28.44	53.02