US natgas prices heads for weekly fall as lower oil, ample supply weigh
July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Thursday and were on track for a second straight weekly decline as ample supplies, lower oil prices and a milder weather outlook weighed on the market.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.2 cents, or 1%, to $3.19 per million British thermal units. The contract was down 1.4% so far this week. Markets will be closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.
"This market is drifting lower partially on spillover from the weak oil pricing and on further moderation in the short-term temperature outlooks. Moderation away from this week's extreme heat amid ample storage levels is deterring buying interest," Consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.
Prices fell ahead of a federal report later in the day which is expected to show energy firms added an above normal 81 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage last week. EIA/GAS
The estimate compares with an injection of 61 bcf during the same week a year ago and an average increase for that week of 64 bcf over the past five years. They projected the amount of gas in inventories would edge up to 6.2% above normal during the week ended June 26.
Oil prices fell nearly 2% for the third consecutive day as concerns over supply disruptions eased after Qatar said Iran and the U.S. had made progress in talks over the Strait of Hormuz. O/R
Meanwhile, meteorologists forecast warmer than normal temperatures nationwide through July 16. Although forecasts have moderated slightly as Cooling Degree Days fell from 253 on Wednesday to 247 on Thursday. CDDs measure energy demand to cool buildings.
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, down from 110 bcfd in June. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 105.8 bcfd this week to 109.6 bcfd next week.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 17.8 bcfd so far in July from 17.3 bcfd in June. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were steady after Qatar said Iran and the U.S. had made progress in indirect talks while low gas storage levels continued to support the market. NG/EU
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Week ended Jun 26 Forecast |
Week ended Jun 19 Actual |
Year ago Jun 26 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 26 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+81 |
+76 |
+61 |
+64 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,916 |
2,835 |
2,945 |
2,747 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.2% |
+5.7% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.22 |
3.28 |
3.30 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
15.03 |
12.78 |
9.98 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
16.03 |
16.05 |
12.53 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
245 |
250 |
187 |
179 |
167 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
247 |
253 |
190 |
182 |
171 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
110.4 |
110.4 |
110.4 |
107.5 |
101.4 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.1 |
7.1 |
6.8 |
N/A |
8.2 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
117.5 |
117.5 |
117.2 |
N/A |
109.6 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.4 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
N/A |
6.6 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.6 |
17.8 |
17.9 |
15.4 |
11.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
U.S. Residential |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant |
38.5 |
41.3 |
45.1 |
44.2 |
46.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.6 |
21.6 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
75.6 |
78.5 |
82.3 |
81.8 |
84.9 |
Total U.S. Demand |
102.7 |
105.8 |
109.6 |
N/A |
104.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
84 |
84 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
90 |
89 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
94 |
94 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended July 3 |
Week ended June 26 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
14 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
9 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
37 |
40 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
17 |
16 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
17 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.38 |
3.33 |
3.20 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.71 |
3.01 |
2.87 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
0.83 |
0.83 |
3.45 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.52 |
2.71 |
2.61 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.78 |
2.85 |
2.95 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
4.73 |
3.83 |
4.50 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
1.93 |
2.22 |
3.70 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
0.68 |
0.87 |
1.57 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.32 |
0.96 |
0.51 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
257.47 |
142.84 |
89.06 |
77.12 |
61.67 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
574.04 |
361.42 |
87.25 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
13.51 |
7.47 |
52.17 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
16.75 |
13.00 |
48.82 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
3.83 |
2.15 |
33.95 |
28.44 |
53.02 |