US natgas prices little changed as market awaits weekly storage report
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, June 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held steady on Thursday as the market waited for direction from a federal storage report despite a bullish decline in output in recent weeks and bearish forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for July delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.1 cents, or 0.3%, to $3.156 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
That lack of price movement came ahead of a federal report expected to show energy firms added a near-normal 75 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended June 12.
That compares with an increase of 97 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 73 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND:
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from 109.7 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through July 3, which should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
But with slightly cooler weather expected next week, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 103.7 bcfd this week to 102.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants held at 17.1 bcfd so far in June, the same as in May due to lingering spring maintenance at several plants. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur were moving across the U.S. Southeast and had a small 10% chance of re-strengthening into a cyclone after reaching the Atlantic Ocean off the coasts of Virginia and North Carolina over the next week, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
Since most U.S. gas comes from shale formations located far from the Gulf of Mexico, analysts have said tropical storms tend to reduce gas demand more than output by knocking out power to homes and businesses and shutting LNG export plants.
Arthur caused some of the roughly 236,000 customer power outages seen in various states across the country early Thursday, according to power outage tracker PowerOutage.us.
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Week ended Jun 12 Forecast |
Week ended Jun 5 Actual |
Year ago Jun 12 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 12 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+75 |
+108 |
+97 |
+73 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,761 |
2,686 |
2,788 |
2,608 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+5.9% |
+6.0% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.17 |
3.15 |
3.64 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
13.82 |
14.05 |
12.38 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
15.82 |
15.94 |
13.05 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
6 |
6 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
190 |
191 |
195 |
172 |
167 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
196 |
197 |
204 |
181 |
176 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.0 |
110.1 |
110.1 |
106.8 |
100.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.0 |
7.1 |
6.6 |
N/A |
7.7 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
116.0 |
117.2 |
116.7 |
N/A |
108.3 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.3 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
N/A |
6.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
16.6 |
17.7 |
17.8 |
14.1 |
12.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.5 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
U.S. Residential |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
U.S. Power Plant |
39.3 |
39.0 |
37.9 |
38.8 |
39.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.6 |
21.7 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
76.7 |
76.3 |
75.0 |
76.7 |
78.5 |
Total U.S. Demand |
102.7 |
103.7 |
102.5 |
N/A |
99.5 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
85 |
85 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
90 |
90 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
95 |
95 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended June 19 |
Week ended June 12 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
11 |
13 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
9 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
40 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
15 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
19 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.25 |
3.10 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.43 |
2.45 |
2.34 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.96 |
2.13 |
3.12 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.30 |
2.35 |
2.17 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.62 |
2.68 |
2.76 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.97 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
3.59 |
3.55 |
3.59 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
1.81 |
0.94 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.25 |
1.25 |
0.64 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
54.58 |
47.68 |
60.18 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
120.54 |
50.61 |
70.06 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
14.92 |
14.92 |
42.59 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
22.25 |
22.25 |
38.53 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
4.13 |
4.13 |
22.51 |
28.44 |
53.02 |