It's been a good week for Vivid Seats Inc. (NASDAQ:SEAT) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 4.1% to US$7.88. The business exceeded expectations with revenue of US$130m coming in 6.4% ahead of forecasts. Statutory losses were US$1.30 a share, in line with what the analysts predicted. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, Vivid Seats' nine analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$510.6m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 84% to US$4.63. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$505.1m and losses of US$5.13 per share in 2026. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for this year.

These new estimates led to the consensus price target rising 12% to US$11.61, with lower forecast losses suggesting things could be looking up for Vivid Seats. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Vivid Seats analyst has a price target of US$16.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.1% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 9.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.2% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Vivid Seats is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Vivid Seats going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Vivid Seats (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.