Viasat (VSAT) is back in focus after securing a multi-year prime contract from the U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command under the Protected Tactical SATCOM Global program.

The share price has been volatile around the news, with a 1-day share price return showing a 3.5% decline after a recent spike, but a 90-day share price return of 39.8% and a 1-year total shareholder return of more than 4x suggesting momentum has been strong over a longer stretch.

If this Space Force contract has you looking across the sector, it could be a good moment to scan for other satellite and communications players via 34 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

With Viasat now trading at $70.17, roughly 22% below one intrinsic value estimate and about 27% below the average analyst target of $88.88, the key question is whether there is still a buying opportunity here or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 37.2% Overvalued

At $70.17, Viasat screens well below one intrinsic value estimate but well above the most followed fair value narrative of about $51, creating a clear tension for investors to weigh.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $51.14 for Viasat based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $58.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $48.0.

The core of this narrative hinges on a detailed earnings rebuild, modest revenue expansion, and a future margin profile that is very different from today. Curious which assumptions really move the fair value, and how sensitive they are to execution on cash flow and capital discipline? The full story spells out the trade off between growth expectations and profitability in a way the current share price does not.

Result: Fair Value of $51.14 (OVERVALUED)

However, you still need to weigh the pressure from heavy ViaSat-3 and Inmarsat spending, and the decline in U.S. fixed broadband subscribers against that optimism.

Wall Street's queuing for one rocket. While SpaceX counts down to its IPO, other companies tied to the new space race are already in orbit. → 20 Compelling Space Companies watchlist · Global Space Race Investing Ideas screener · Scan the sector by valuation on Rocket Lab's valuation page.

Another View: Multiples Point to a Different Story

The analyst fair value narrative indicates that Viasat is 37.2% overvalued at $70.17. However, the market is pricing the stock at a P/S of 2.1x, which is below the US Communications industry at 2.5x, well below peer averages of 11.6x, and under a fair ratio of 3x.

If the market were to move closer to that 3x fair ratio, today’s discount on sales could narrow quickly. On the other hand, if sentiment cools, the current gap might simply reflect the risk of ongoing losses and heavy funding needs. Which side of that trade off feels more realistic to you as an investor?

Next Steps

If the mixed signals so far leave you undecided, treat that as a prompt to move quickly. Review the key data and sharpen your own stance using the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.