• For anyone following the stock, a key question is whether Waste Connections is priced fairly or if the current share price leaves some value on the table.
• The stock recently closed at US$167.90, with the share price up 9.0% over the past week and 12.7% over the past month. Over the last year, the return is down 8.9% and it remains down 3.6% year to date.
• Recent coverage has focused on how Waste Connections fits into broader market conversations around waste management, acquisitions and capital allocation. This helps frame how investors think about its long-term prospects and risk profile, and provides useful context when comparing recent share price moves with valuation metrics.
• On Simply Wall St's valuation checks, Waste Connections scores 3 out of 6. The rest of this article will explain what that score means across different valuation methods and then introduce a tool that can help you assess valuation in a more complete way.

Approach 1: Waste Connections Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a stock might be worth by projecting future cash flows and then discounting them back to today, using the time value of money. For Waste Connections, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections.

The latest twelve month Free Cash Flow for Waste Connections is about $1.24b. Analyst and extrapolated projections used by Simply Wall St show Free Cash Flow reaching about $2.17b in 2030, with a full set of yearly estimates and extrapolations out to 2035 expressed in today’s dollars through discounting.

Putting these cash flows together, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of roughly $219.03 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $167.90, this implies the stock is trading at about a 23.3% discount. On this specific cash flow based view, Waste Connections appears undervalued.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Waste Connections is undervalued by 23.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 44 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Waste Connections Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Waste Connections, the P/E ratio is a useful way to gauge how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings. Investors typically accept a higher P/E when they expect stronger growth or see the earnings stream as relatively resilient, and a lower P/E when growth expectations or perceived risks are higher.

Waste Connections currently trades on a P/E of 40.46x. This sits above the Commercial Services industry average P/E of 22.13x and above the peer group average of 31.30x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework estimates what a more tailored P/E might look like for Waste Connections, based on factors such as its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks.

Because the Fair Ratio of 24.57x incorporates those fundamentals, it can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the broader industry. Setting this Fair Ratio against the current P/E of 40.46x suggests the stock is valued at a higher multiple than would typically be expected on this basis.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Waste Connections Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand what valuation figures mean in practice. This is where Narratives come in as a simple way to connect your view of Waste Connections with the numbers that sit behind it.

A Narrative is your story about a company expressed through assumptions, such as how revenue, earnings and margins might develop. These assumptions then flow into a forecast and a Fair Value estimate that you can compare with the current share price.

On Simply Wall St, Narratives sit inside the Community page and are used by millions of investors. This makes it easy to see different Fair Values side by side and to quickly spot when your own view suggests the stock may be priced above or below what you consider reasonable.

Because Narratives update as new information arrives, such as earnings releases or news on acquisitions and projects, they stay aligned with the latest data rather than remaining fixed to an old model.

For Waste Connections, one investor might build a more optimistic Narrative close to a Fair Value of about US$254.62, while another might lean toward a more cautious Narrative near US$156.00. This clearly shows how reasonable people can interpret the same company in very different ways.

For Waste Connections however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Waste Connections Narratives:

Fair Value: US$203.92

Implied discount vs recent price: about 17.7% below this fair value

Revenue growth assumption: 5.91% per year

• Analysts see pricing, acquisitions and employee retention supporting higher revenue and margin assumptions over the next few years.
• Forecasts build toward earnings of about US$1.6b by 2029, with profit margin assumptions rising from 11.0% to around 14.0%.
• This view relies on Waste Connections sustaining a premium P/E multiple near 38.1x and continuing to execute on acquisitions and capital allocation.

Fair Value: US$156.00

Implied premium vs recent price: about 7.6% above this fair value

Revenue growth assumption: 4.49% per year

• More cautious analysts assume slower revenue growth, more modest margin expansion and a lower future P/E multiple of about 35.4x.
• They model earnings of roughly US$1.3b by 2029, with the view that many easy efficiency gains are already reflected in current performance.
• This narrative highlights execution risks around AI tools, landfill gas and RNG projects, and project driven landfill volumes that may prove uneven.

Do you think there's more to the story for Waste Connections? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.