We Believe OPAL Fuels' (NASDAQ:OPAL) Earnings Are A Poor Guide For Its Profitability

OPAL Fuels Inc. Class A

OPAL Fuels Inc. Class A

OPAL

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The latest earnings release from OPAL Fuels Inc. (NASDAQ:OPAL ) disappointed investors. We did some analysis and believe that they might be concerned about some weak underlying factors.

earnings-and-revenue-history
NasdaqCM:OPAL Earnings and Revenue History May 18th 2026

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

For anyone who wants to understand OPAL Fuels' profit beyond the statutory numbers, it's important to note that during the last twelve months statutory profit gained from US$600k worth of unusual items. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. If OPAL Fuels doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

An Unusual Tax Situation

Having already discussed the impact of the unusual items, we should also note that OPAL Fuels received a tax benefit of US$50m. This is of course a bit out of the ordinary, given it is more common for companies to be paying tax than receiving tax benefits! The receipt of a tax benefit is obviously a good thing, on its own. However, the devil in the detail is that these kind of benefits only impact in the year they are booked, and are often one-off in nature. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth. While we think it's good that the company has booked a tax benefit, it does mean that there's every chance the statutory profit will come in a lot higher than it would be if the income was adjusted for one-off factors.

Our Take On OPAL Fuels' Profit Performance

In the last year OPAL Fuels received a tax benefit, which boosted its profit in a way that might not be much more sustainable than turning prime farmland into gas fields. And on top of that, it also saw an unusual item boost its profit, suggesting that next year might see a lower profit number, if these events are not repeated. Considering all this we'd argue OPAL Fuels' profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing OPAL Fuels at this point in time.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.