Weaker oil, bearish weather view drive US natgas futures to more than two-week low
June 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures hit a more than two-week low on Monday, in step with a sharp oil price drop, and as weather forecasts pointed to cooler temperatures for the rest of June.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were 0.89 cent, or 0.3%, lower at $3.11 per million British thermal units at 9:55 a.m. ET. During the session, the contract fell to its lowest level since May 27.
"Spillover from the plunge in oil prices is weighing on nearby futures," Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.
Oil prices slipped to a three-month low after U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran's deputy foreign minister said they had reached an initial deal to end the war and resume traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. O/R
"Cool weather expectations are now being stretched toward the end of this month with the total of summer cooling degree days now reducing the possibility of a major decline in the current supply surplus of about 150 bcf," Ritterbusch added.
Cooling Degree Days (CDDs), which measure energy demand to cool buildings, stood at 179, below the number on Friday.
Financial firm LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 104.1 bcfd this week to 103.3 bcfd next week.
Dutch and British natural gas contracts fell around 5% on the Iran war news, but the timing of how quickly Gulf production can recover remains unclear. NG/EU
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Week ended Jun 12 forecast |
Week ended Jun 5 actual |
Year ago Jun 12 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 12 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+82 |
+108 |
+97 |
+78 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,768 |
2,686 |
2,788 |
2,608 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.1% |
+6.0% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.12 |
3.10 |
3.64 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
14.77 |
15.93 |
12.38 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
18.86 |
18.92 |
13.05 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
7 |
8 |
20 |
20 |
13 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
179 |
186 |
138 |
138 |
152 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
186 |
194 |
158 |
158 |
165 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.0 |
110.0 |
109.5 |
106.1 |
100.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.0 |
7.0 |
6.6 |
N/A |
7.7 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
116.0 |
117.0 |
116.1 |
N/A |
108.3 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.3 |
7.4 |
7.4 |
N/A |
6.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
16.6 |
17.7 |
17.9 |
14.1 |
12.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.5 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
U.S. Residential |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
U.S. Power Plant |
39.4 |
39.4 |
38.7 |
37.7 |
39.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.6 |
21.7 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
76.9 |
76.6 |
75.8 |
75.6 |
78.5 |
Total U.S. Demand |
102.9 |
104.1 |
103.3 |
N/A |
99.5 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
85 |
85 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
90 |
90 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
95 |
95 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended Jun 12 |
Week ended June 5 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
13 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
9 |
11 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
6 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
39 |
38 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
15 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
17 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.06 |
3.161 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.398 |
2.63 |
2.34 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.712 |
1.793 |
3.12 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.3 |
2.446 |
2.17 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.652 |
2.721 |
2.76 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.9 |
2.831 |
2.97 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.775 |
2.792 |
3.59 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-0.08 |
-0.51 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.728 |
1.7 |
0.64 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
93.78 |
93.78 |
60.18 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
44.31 |
166.84 |
70.06 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
33.66 |
10.57 |
42.59 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
30.43 |
25.13 |
38.53 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
17.15 |
11.95 |
22.51 |
28.44 |
53.02 |