• In early May 2026, Planet Fitness reported softer-than-expected membership growth, lowered its 2026 revenue and earnings guidance, and paused a planned nationwide Black Card price increase amid operational headwinds.
• At the same time, multiple law firms launched investigations into whether the company adequately disclosed risks around its marketing pivot, highlighting growing scrutiny of Planet Fitness’s growth story and communications.
• Now we’ll explore how weaker-than-expected membership growth and revised 2026 guidance affect Planet Fitness’s previously optimistic investment narrative.

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Planet Fitness Investment Narrative Recap

To own Planet Fitness today, you have to believe its low-cost, mass-market gym model can still grow membership and club count despite softer sign-ups and rising competition. The key near-term catalyst is a return to healthier net member growth, while the biggest risk is that weaker traffic and higher churn turn recent guidance cuts into a more lasting reset of expectations. The May 2026 outlook revision and stock drop look material to both.

The clearest link to this risk is Planet Fitness’s May 7, 2026 update, where it lowered 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance and paused the planned national Black Card price increase. That move directly touches a prior bull catalyst of higher Black Card pricing and mix lifting revenue per member, and raises questions about how quickly pricing power can be used to offset softer same-store sales and higher capital intensity.

Yet investors should also weigh the growing concern that online cancellations and weaker value-focused consumers might amplify these headwinds in ways you really need to understand before...

Planet Fitness' narrative projects $1.8 billion revenue and $328.5 million earnings by 2029. This requires 12.7% yearly revenue growth and a $109.4 million earnings increase from $219.1 million today.

Uncover how Planet Fitness' forecasts yield a $112.06 fair value, a 113% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The most optimistic analysts once modeled revenue at about US$1.9 billion and earnings near US$368 million by 2029, yet the latest membership miss and guidance cut highlight how forecasts can shift, especially if rising churn among cost-conscious members and cancellation friction prove more persistent than expected.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Planet Fitness - why the stock might be worth 30% less than the current price!

The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Planet Fitness research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Planet Fitness research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Planet Fitness' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.