The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Spire Inc. (NYSE:SR), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

Following the latest downgrade, the five analysts covering Spire provided consensus estimates of US$2.5b revenue in 2026, which would reflect a small 4.7% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to dip 4.0% to US$4.78 in the same period. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.12 in 2026. Indeed, we can see that analyst sentiment has declined measurably after the new consensus came out, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a minor downgrade to EPS estimates to boot.

Analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$99.13, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Spire's valuation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 9.3% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 3.0% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Spire's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Spire. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Spire's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Spire after today.

Uncomfortably, our automated valuation tool also suggests that Spire stock could be overvalued following the downgrade. Shareholders could be left disappointed if these estimates play out. Find out why, and see how we estimate the valuation for free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.