Just hours before an Iran ceasefire became public, three newly created Polymarket accounts pocketed over $600,000 by betting on its exact timing.

The highly suspicious windfall, executed even as Donald Trump warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” has now prompted the White House to warn its own staff that mirroring such trades could be a criminal offense.

The ceasefire market generated over $266 million in total trading volume since launch.

Insider Trading Or Coincidence?

The ceasefire bets follow a troubling pattern.

When Operation Epic Fury began, suspected insiders made $1.2M on Iran strikes. Earlier this year, an unknown trader pocketed $400,000 on Nicolás Maduro’s capture less than five hours before it happened.

The White House appeared to take notice.

The Management Office sent a staff-wide email warning that it is “a criminal offense for anyone to use nonpublic information to buy or sell these contracts.”

The timing was notable: about 15 minutes before Trump announced a pause on Iran strikes via Truth Social, more than $760 million worth of oil futures contracts changed hands in less than two minutes.

White House Spokesman Davis Ingle called suggestions of wrongdoing “baseless and irresponsible.”

But Trump allies were skeptical. Tom Ellsworth, co-host of the Trump-friendly PBD Podcast, said on air: “It is disgusting,” speculating a “circle of people” in government likely knew what was coming.

Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel was more pointed. “Wow. 16 for 16 on market moves,” he wrote on X. “Truly incredible — either great instincts, sheer luck, or… door number three — insider trading. We all know the answer.”

Congress Moves In

Manhattan prosecutors probed Polymarket over whether lucrative war bets violated federal law, and the CFTC declared insider trading a top enforcement priority, and now some legislators are pushing for an outright ban.

House Democrats have sent a letter to the CFTC asking why it hasn’t cracked down on offshore prediction market war bets.

Republican Rep. Blake Moore said the trades were “highly unlikely to be good-faith trades” and more likely involved insiders with advance knowledge.

Complicating the picture: Donald Trump Jr. holds investor and advisory roles at both Polymarket and Kalshi. His spokesperson has said he has “zero involvement in administration policy regulating prediction markets.”

With VP JD Vance leading peace talks in Islamabad, traders are watching ceasefire extension markets closely. If recent history is any guide, a suspicious flurry of activity on Polymarket may offer the earliest signal of which way the talks are going, before any official announcement does.

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