• In March 2026, Custom Truck One Source reported mixed fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with record quarterly revenue of US$528.18 million and full-year revenue of US$1.94 billion but a wider annual net loss of US$31.05 million, while earnings per share in the quarter beat market expectations despite a revenue miss.
• Management highlighted record rental fleet utilization near 84%, new OEM partnerships, and 2026 guidance calling for 3% to 9% revenue growth and higher adjusted EBITDA, signalling a focus on profitable rental growth, improved free cash flow, and a new two-segment reporting structure to better reflect how the business is run.
• Against this backdrop, we’ll examine how the strong rental utilization and 2026 guidance reshape Custom Truck One Source’s existing investment narrative.

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Custom Truck One Source Investment Narrative Recap

To own Custom Truck One Source, you need to believe its high-utilization rental model and specialized infrastructure exposure can eventually translate record revenue into consistent profitability. The latest results and 2026 guidance keep the key near term catalyst intact: continued strength in rental utilization and EBITDA improvement. However, the wider full year net loss and modest revenue outlook sharpen the biggest near term risk that high leverage and any slowdown in end market demand could weigh on earnings.

Among recent announcements, the shift to a new two segment reporting structure stands out. It ties directly to the rental focused catalyst by giving investors clearer visibility into how the core rental and equipment businesses contribute to revenue, margins, and capital intensity. For shareholders watching free cash flow, segment level disclosure around rental growth, fleet investment, and asset sales should be especially helpful in assessing whether management is delivering on its cash generation and deleveraging priorities.

Yet behind the improving utilization and EBITDA guidance, investors should also be aware of the company’s elevated leverage and what happens if revenue growth were to…

Custom Truck One Source's narrative projects $2.3 billion revenue and $28.6 million earnings by 2028. This requires 6.6% yearly revenue growth and a $64.6 million earnings increase from -$36.0 million today.

Uncover how Custom Truck One Source's forecasts yield a $7.75 fair value, a 32% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were expecting Custom Truck’s revenue to reach about US$2.3 billion and earnings of roughly US$21 million by 2028, which is a much brighter scenario than the baseline view and assumes faster growth and margin expansion. After a mixed quarter and cautious 2026 outlook, you may want to compare that bullish story with the risk that high leverage could constrain the company if conditions change.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Custom Truck One Source - why the stock might be worth just $6.50!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Custom Truck One Source research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Custom Truck One Source research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Custom Truck One Source's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.