Xometry (XMTR) is drawing close attention after a busy February 24 update, combining a planned CEO transition, detailed fourth quarter and full year 2025 results, fresh 2026 revenue guidance, and a new shelf registration filing.

Despite the strong revenue update and leadership plans, Xometry’s recent momentum has cooled, with a 7 day share price return showing a decline of 28.23% and a year to date share price return showing a decline of 34.65%, set against a 1 year total shareholder return of 62.44% and a 3 year total shareholder return of about 2.2x.

If these sharp swings have you thinking about other AI exposed names, it could be worth checking our screener of 35 AI infrastructure stocks as a starting list of potential ideas.

So with revenue and guidance pointing one way and the share price swinging the other, is Xometry’s AI powered marketplace now trading below what it could be worth, or is the market already baking in years of future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 37.3% Undervalued

With Xometry last closing at $41.02 against a most followed fair value estimate of $65.44, the gap between price and narrative is already quite wide.

The rapid deployment of AI and machine learning across pricing, supplier selection, and workflow automation is substantially improving efficiency, optimizing gross margin, and providing significant operating leverage, positioning the company for margin expansion and improving EBITDA.

Want to see what kind of revenue gains and margin shift would need to line up for that fair value to hold? The narrative leans on ambitious earnings compounding plus a rich future multiple that is usually reserved for market favorites. Curious how those assumptions stack together to support a $65 handle instead of $41? The full breakdown lays out the path year by year and leaves the judgement to you.

Result: Fair Value of $65.44 (UNDERVALUED)

However, you still need to weigh risks such as persistent losses, potential equity dilution, and tougher competition that could pressure margins and expectations.

Another View: Cash Flows Point Lower

While the narrative-driven fair value for Xometry sits at $65.44, our DCF model presents a different perspective, with an estimated value of $25.56 per share. This suggests the stock appears expensive rather than undervalued. It raises a clear question: which story do you think is closer to reality?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Xometry for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 49 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

After all this, are you feeling cautious or optimistic about where Xometry sits today? Take a moment to review the underlying data, weigh both the concerns and the upside, and then check out the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign to see how those factors line up.

Ready for more investment ideas?

If Xometry has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St screener to quickly surface other opportunities that fit your approach.

• Chase value first and price second by scanning our list of 49 high quality undervalued stocks that combine fundamental strength with prices below their estimated worth.
• Prioritize resilience and sleep better at night by focusing on 76 resilient stocks with low risk scores identified for relatively stable fundamentals and lower risk scores.
• Spot tomorrow’s potential standouts early by browsing a screener containing 24 high quality undiscovered gems before the broader market focuses on them.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.