XP (XP) is in focus after two product launches in Brazil: a partnership with prediction market platform Kalshi and the rollout of USDXP, a US$ backed stablecoin issued via Clear Corretora.

XP's recent product launches come after a mixed period for the share price. A 30 day share price return of an 8.4% decline contrasts with a 12.5% share price gain year to date and a 25.3% 1 year total shareholder return, suggesting momentum has softened in the short term while longer term holders have still seen positive outcomes.

If XP's push into new products has caught your attention and you want to see what else is out there in finance and tech, our screener of 19 top founder-led companies is a straightforward way to spot other potential ideas.

XP now sits at US$18.20 per share, with a value score of 6, a 25.6% intrinsic discount and a 31.6% gap to its analyst price target. This raises the real question: is this a genuine opportunity, or is the market already baking in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 23.8% Undervalued

XP's most followed narrative puts fair value at $23.89 per share versus the current $18.20. It frames the story as a discount that hinges heavily on earnings power and capital returns.

XP's continued diversification of its product suite, including early-stage growth in insurance, retirement, cards, FX, global investments, and the newly launched consortium business, enables deeper client cross-sell and higher revenue per customer, pointing to meaningful top-line expansion and improved earnings resiliency.

Want to see what is sitting behind that product push and fair value gap? The narrative leans on compounding revenue, sticky margins, and a future earnings multiple that has to do some heavy lifting. Curious which exact growth and profitability assumptions need to line up for this story to work? The full breakdown spells out those moving parts in detail.

At the core of this narrative is a discounted cash flow style view that uses a 12.33% discount rate and assumes XP can grow revenue, keep margins healthy and support earnings per share with ongoing buybacks. It also leans on XP trading on a future P/E that is below the current average for the US Capital Markets industry but above where XP sits today. This is what helps bridge the gap between $18.20 and the $23.89 fair value estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $23.89 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this depends on XP maintaining its position against rising competition and effectively managing any pressure on fees that could affect revenue and margins.

Next Steps

The mix of product launches, valuation signals and growth assumptions gives you plenty to think about, so it makes sense to check the underlying data and stress test the story for yourself. To see what the market is currently optimistic about, take a closer look at the 5 key rewards.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If XP has sharpened your curiosity, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with other clear, data backed ideas our screeners have already picked out.

• Spot potential value opportunities early by scanning our list of 48 high quality undervalued stocks that meet strict quality and pricing checks.
• Prioritise resilience by reviewing 68 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on stability metrics and business strength.
• Hunt for future leaders before they hit the spotlight using our screener containing 26 high quality undiscovered gems built around fundamentals, not hype.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.