Shareholders might have noticed that XPEL, Inc. (NASDAQ:XPEL) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.7% to US$43.96 in the past week. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of US$0.37 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of US$117m came in 3.8% ahead of analyst predictions. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for XPEL from three analysts is for revenues of US$523.3m in 2026. If met, it would imply a modest 6.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 4.7% to US$2.01. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$525.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.12 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 6.4% to US$55.33, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic XPEL analyst has a price target of US$56.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$55.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that XPEL is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that XPEL's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 9.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Compare this to the 56 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while XPEL's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for XPEL. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for XPEL going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of XPEL's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.