There's been a major selloff in Xponential Fitness, Inc. (NYSE:XPOF) shares in the week since it released its quarterly report, with the stock down 27% to US$4.87. The results don't look great, especially considering that the analysts had been forecasting a profit and Xponential Fitness delivered a statutory loss of US$0.10 per share. Revenues of US$66m did beat expectations by 2.4% though. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eight analysts covering Xponential Fitness, is for revenues of US$256.6m in 2026. This implies an uneasy 11% reduction in Xponential Fitness' revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Xponential Fitness forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.028 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$263.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.34 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 9.0% to US$6.75. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Xponential Fitness at US$10.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$5.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 21% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 14% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.5% per year. It's pretty clear that Xponential Fitness' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Xponential Fitness. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Xponential Fitness analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Xponential Fitness , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.