Tidewater (TDW) has just caught attention after delivering a standout Q2 earnings surprise that exceeded expectations and triggered a flurry of analyst upgrades for fiscal 2025. The company’s steady operational execution, combined with meaningful insider buying—including the President putting $2 million of their own cash into shares—has done more than just generate headlines. Investors are starting to wonder whether this is a pivotal inflection point or just another uptick in a volatile sector, especially with the broader oil and energy space riding high thanks to surging crude prices. A look at the bigger picture helps explain why sentiment is shifting. Over the past three months, Tidewater’s stock has surged 23%, shaking off a sluggish performance from the start of the year. While the shares are still down roughly 20% compared to this time last year, the company has a multi-year track record of significant long-term gains capped by impressive revenue and net income growth in the latest reports. Momentum in the oil services sector, paired with raised earnings targets, is giving investors fresh reasons to revisit Tidewater’s long-term outlook. After these recent moves, driven by both improved fundamentals and renewed management conviction, the big question remains. Is this the start of an undervalued comeback, or is the current price baking in a surge that has already been realized?

Most Popular Narrative: 6.6% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed analyst narrative, Tidewater is currently seen as undervalued compared to its estimated fair value, based on future growth and earnings projections.

Tight vessel supply due to minimal newbuild activity and expected attrition of older vessels is likely to constrain global OSV fleet growth through at least 2027. This may position Tidewater for higher utilization and improved day rates as offshore E&P and construction projects ramp up, serving as a catalyst for sustained revenue growth and margin expansion.

Curious what is fueling this "undervalued" thesis? Behind the headline is an aggressive blueprint that hinges on long-term revenue momentum, rising profit margins, and a future earnings multiple normally reserved for faster-growth industries. Want to know which key assumptions and projections set this price target apart? See how the narrative builds its fair value case on just a handful of surprisingly optimistic figures; the details may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $61.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent softness in offshore demand or setbacks in major acquisitions could disrupt Tidewater’s momentum and challenge the current bullish outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Tidewater narrative.

Another View: SWS DCF Model Puts the Spotlight on Potential Underpricing

While analysts focus on future growth estimates and market sentiment, our DCF model presents a much more optimistic picture for Tidewater. This suggests that shares may be even more deeply undervalued than they appear. Could this model be identifying value that others overlook?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day ( check out Tidewater for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Tidewater Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can craft your own narrative for Tidewater in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Tidewater.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.