Acadia Healthcare Company (ACHC) is back on investors’ radar after management cut planned 2026 capital expenditures to US$300 million from US$600 million, alongside fresh pressure from activist shareholder Engine Capital for a review of options.

The activist campaign and capital spending reset come after a challenging share price stretch, with a 90 day share price return decline of 33.12% and a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 69.89%. Recent management moves and the upcoming 2025 results update may be seen as attempts to reset expectations and risk perceptions.

If this kind of turnaround story has your attention, it could be a useful moment to compare Acadia with other healthcare stocks that might offer different risk and return profiles.

With Acadia trading at US$13.55 after a sharp share price reset and fresh activist pressure, you have to ask: is this a mispriced turnaround, or is the market already factoring in any future improvement in the business?

Most Popular Narrative: 29% Undervalued

With Acadia Healthcare Company’s fair value estimate at about $19.07 against a last close of $13.55, the most followed narrative sketches out a recovery path that hinges on execution, capital discipline and reimbursement trends.

Lower-than-expected labor and premium cost inflation in 2025, combined with plans to moderate capital spending and reduce start-up costs in 2026, set the stage for faster free cash flow generation and potential upward momentum in net earnings and available capital for reinvestment.

Want to see how this cost reset ties into revenue assumptions, margin rebuild and the earnings power implied by that fair value? The narrative leans heavily on how fast profitability can rebuild and what kind of future earnings multiple the market might be prepared to pay if those goals are met.

Result: Fair Value of $19.07 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the story can shift quickly if Medicaid volumes stay weak or if bad debt and legal costs keep earnings and cash flow under pressure for longer.

Build Your Own Acadia Healthcare Company Narrative

If you are not fully aligned with this view or simply like to cross check the numbers yourself, you can build a custom storyline in minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Acadia Healthcare Company research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.