What ACADIA Pharmaceuticals’ Recent Performance Tells You

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) has drawn investor attention after a mixed stretch in the market, with the stock showing a 1 day return of about 2.2% decline and a 7 day move of roughly 6.4% decline.

Over the past month the share price reflects about 5.9% decline, while the past 3 months show roughly 10.7% total return. This sets up an interesting backdrop for assessing the current US$25.13 price against the company’s fundamentals.

Zooming out, ACADIA’s recent pressure on the share price contrasts with its 1 year total shareholder return of about 34.7%. This suggests earlier optimism is being tested as investors reassess growth potential and risk around its CNS and rare disease portfolio.

If you are comparing ACADIA’s recent swings with other healthcare names, this could be a good moment to scan healthcare stocks for similar or contrasting setups across the sector.

So with ACADIA posting revenue of US$1.05b, net income of US$261.17m and trading around US$25.13, is the recent share price weakness offering a potential entry point, or is the market already fully reflecting its future prospects in the current valuation?

Most Popular Narrative: 18.2% Undervalued

Compared with ACADIA Pharmaceuticals’ last close at $25.13, the most followed narrative lines up on a higher fair value of $30.74, built from detailed cash flow assumptions.

ACADIA's pipeline momentum, with 9 disclosed programs and multiple late-stage clinical readouts expected by 2027, positions the company to significantly diversify its revenue streams, reducing risk from single-product dependence and providing potential for margin expansion as new products are launched.

Curious what kind of revenue climb, margin profile, and future P/E multiple are baked into that fair value? The narrative leans on specific growth timelines, product mix shifts, and a higher earnings base than today, all run through a 7.05% discount rate. The exact assumptions might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $30.74 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on key risks, including ACADIA’s heavy reliance on NUPLAZID revenue and the possibility that rising R&D and SG&A costs pressure margins if trials disappoint.

Build Your Own ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion or just prefer your own work, you can build a complete view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your ACADIA Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If ACADIA has your attention, do not stop here. Take a few minutes to line up fresh ideas that fit your style before the market moves on without you.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.