BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) is back in focus after announcing nine upcoming hereditary angioedema presentations at a major allergy conference, including positive interim ALPHA-SOLAR data for navenibart and additional real-world results for ORLADEYO.

BioCryst’s recent hereditary angioedema updates come after a mixed share price record, with a 1-day share price return of 4.43% and 7-day return of 6.54% contrasting with a year-to-date share price decline of 8.80% and a 1-year total shareholder return decline of 22.10%. This suggests short term interest is picking up while longer term returns have remained weak.

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With BioCryst still loss making on US$599.816m of revenue and trading at a large discount to one analyst price target, the key question is whether the current price underestimates its rare disease pipeline or already reflects potential future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 66.6% Undervalued

At a last close of $6.84 versus a narrative fair value of $20.50, BioCryst is framed as heavily discounted, with that gap resting on ambitious rare disease assumptions.

Strong and sustainable revenue growth for ORLADEYO, supported by increasing new patient prescriptions, expanding prescriber base, and robust retention rates, positions BioCryst to capitalize on the rising prevalence and earlier diagnosis of rare diseases, likely driving sustained top line expansion and improved profit margins.

Curious what has to happen for that kind of rare disease thesis to work? The narrative leans on faster revenue, sharply higher margins and a very different earnings profile. Want to see the exact glide path behind that $20.50 figure?

Result: Fair Value of $20.50 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this depends on ORLADEYO remaining resilient against new hereditary angioedema competitors and on BioCryst turning its early stage pipeline spending into commercially viable drugs.

Build Your Own BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Narrative

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A great starting point for your BioCryst Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.