Renewed optimism around Carvana (CVNA) has been driven by several analysts reaffirming or increasing their positive views. They point to the company’s logistics network, reconditioning capacity, brand strength, and exposure to online used car demand.

Carvana’s latest share price of $460.88 comes after a 90 day share price return of 38.07% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 98.72%, with the 3 year total shareholder return above 7x. This signals that momentum has been strong as investors react to the company’s expanding online used car footprint and recent analyst endorsements.

If Carvana’s move has caught your attention, this could be a good moment to see what else is on the move in autos and browse auto manufacturers.

With Carvana now at $460.88, earnings and revenue growing at double digit rates, and the stock sitting only about 4% below one widely watched analyst target, you have to ask yourself: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 9.9% Overvalued

Compared with Carvana’s last close of $460.88, the most followed narrative points to a fair value of about $419.45, using a discount rate of 8.42% and long range earnings projections to anchor that view.

The acceleration in consumer preference for purchasing vehicles online and increased comfort with high-value e-commerce transactions positions Carvana to capture a larger share of the used vehicle retail market, supporting outsized long-term unit and revenue growth.

The company's scaled logistics and reconditioning infrastructure, bolstered by the integration of ADESA locations, is driving lower delivery and inbound transport costs; as utilization rises, these investments are expected to further enhance operating leverage, improving gross margins and profitability.

Want to see what kind of growth path could defend a premium multiple and still land below today’s price? Revenue expansion, margin shifts and earnings power all sit at the heart of this fair value call. Curious which assumptions do the heavy lifting in that model, and how sensitive the outcome is to them? The full narrative lays those numbers out in black and white.

Result: Fair Value of $419.45 (OVERVALUED)

However, this story could change if execution stumbles at ADESA sites, or if used car pricing and credit conditions tighten enough to pressure volumes and margins.

Build Your Own Carvana Narrative

If you are not fully on board with this story or prefer to lean on your own work, you can build a complete view yourself in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Carvana research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.