Why expectations around Excelerate Energy’s earnings are moving the stock

Recent interest in Excelerate Energy (EE) is being driven by expectations around its upcoming earnings report on February 25, 2026, following a pattern of earnings surprises in recent quarters.

That backdrop of earnings optimism is lining up with strong recent momentum, with a 30 day share price return of 28.47%, a 90 day share price return of 44.19%, and a 3 year total shareholder return of 77.15% as the stock trades at US$39.12.

If Excelerate’s move has you looking for other energy related ideas, it could be a good time to scan our list of 24 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks as another angle on the infrastructure story.

With earnings expectations high and the share price already up sharply, the central question is whether Excelerate is still mispriced or if the market is already factoring in most of the growth story.

Most Popular Narrative: 13.4% Overvalued

The most followed valuation narrative puts Excelerate Energy’s fair value at $34.50, below the current $39.12 share price. This raises questions about how aggressive the embedded growth expectations really are.

Above 90% of adjusted EBITDA is now anchored by long-term, take-or-pay contracts, many in regions urgently seeking diversified energy sources to enhance energy security in response to global geopolitical unrest; this high contract coverage increases future earnings visibility and margin stability.

Want to see what kind of revenue ramp and margin lift have to materialize to justify that gap to $34.50? The narrative leans heavily on rapid top line expansion, rising profitability, and a richer future earnings multiple than many investors usually expect for an LNG infrastructure name.

Result: Fair Value of $34.50 (OVERVALUED)

However, there are still clear pressure points, including reliance on LNG infrastructure amid decarbonization policies and the risk of costly, underutilized terminals in emerging markets.

Build Your Own Excelerate Energy Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or simply prefer to rely on your own work, you can build a custom thesis on Excelerate in just a few minutes by starting with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Excelerate Energy.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Excelerate has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not the one hearing about the next opportunity late.

• Target resilience first and stress test your portfolio with our 83 resilient stocks with low risk scores that highlights companies with steadier risk profiles.
• Hunt for value and compare Excelerate with our 51 high quality undervalued stocks to see which names currently look cheaper on fundamentals.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.