Recent performance snapshot

Flywire (FLYW) has drawn investor attention after a stretch of weaker share performance, with the stock showing a 2.4% decline over the past day and a 34.8% decline over the past year.

Over the past month, Flywire has recorded an 11.0% decline. The past 3 months show a 5.4% decline and the year-to-date return is a 9.4% decline, all measured against a last close of US$12.60.

For Flywire, the weak 1 year total shareholder return of 34.8% and softer recent share price performance suggest momentum has been fading rather than building, as the stock now trades at US$12.60.

If Flywire’s recent pullback has you rethinking where to focus next, it could be a good moment to scan high growth tech and AI stocks for other payment and software names catching stronger interest.

So with Flywire trading at US$12.60, an intrinsic discount of about 12% and a value score of 4, is the recent share slide setting up a buying opportunity, or is the market already factoring in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 24.1% Undervalued

At a last close of $12.60 versus a narrative fair value of $16.59, Flywire is framed as materially undervalued, with that gap hinging on specific growth and profitability assumptions.

Ongoing investment in proprietary technology, AI driven automation, and integration capabilities is yielding significant platform efficiencies (e.g., 25% operational cost improvements, 90% automated payment matching, and 40% automated customer service). These efficiencies underpin Flywire's ability to maintain or increase net margins and deliver stronger earnings leverage as scale increases.

It is worth examining what kind of revenue path and margin lift are implied in that valuation gap. The narrative leans on compounding efficiencies, expanding volumes, and a richer earnings base. The full set of assumptions is where the story becomes clearer.

Discount rate used in this narrative: 7.33%.

Result: Fair Value of $16.59 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that upside case still runs into real hurdles, including tighter student visa scrutiny and competition that could pressure pricing and slow education-led payment volumes.

Build Your Own Flywire Narrative

If this view does not line up with your own, or you would rather work directly with the numbers yourself, you can build a complete Flywire thesis in just a few minutes. To get started, use Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Flywire research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Ready to hunt for your next idea?

If Flywire is just one name on your radar, now is the time to widen your search and pressure test new ideas before the market moves first.

• Target potential mispricing by scanning these 868 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that match your style and see which opportunities stand out on your watchlist.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.