Freedom Capital’s new coverage of Gambling.com Group (GAMB), focused on sports data services and revised revenue guidance, has pushed the stock into the spotlight for investors tracking online gambling and data driven revenue models.

The recent initiation of coverage comes at a time when Gambling.com Group’s 90 day share price return of 31.66% decline and 1 year total shareholder return of 62.46% decline signal fading momentum, even as sports data growth reshapes how investors assess its risk profile and prospects.

If this kind of shift in sentiment has your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With Gambling.com Group trading at US$5.18 alongside an intrinsic discount flag and a sizeable gap to analyst targets, the real question is whether you are seeing mispricing here or a market that is already accounting for future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 41.4% Undervalued

The most followed narrative places Gambling.com Group’s fair value at US$8.83 per share versus the last close at US$5.18, framing a sizable valuation gap that hinges on how its newer sports data and prediction markets reshape the business.

The ongoing legalization and liberalization of online gambling and sports betting in North America (e.g. Missouri launch in December and future regulatory changes such as potential prediction markets approval) continues to expand Gambling.com Group's total addressable market, offering sustained long-term revenue growth and new partnership opportunities as more states and jurisdictions open up.

Curious what earnings profile and margin reset support this valuation jump, and how fast non search revenues need to scale to carry the story? The full narrative lays out those key assumptions in detail.

Result: Fair Value of $8.83 (UNDERVALUED)

However, ongoing search volatility and tighter regulation could still pressure marketing revenue and margins, challenging the idea that sports data and prediction markets fully offset these headwinds.

Another Angle On Valuation

That 41.4% undervaluation story sits awkwardly next to how the market is actually pricing Gambling.com Group today. On a P/E of 96.3x, compared with 28.5x as a fair ratio, 69.3x for peers and 14.8x for the wider US Media group, the shares look expensive, not cheap. Is the market overpaying for future earnings, or are the models too optimistic?

Build Your Own Gambling.com Group Narrative

If you are not fully on board with this view, or simply want to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a custom thesis in minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Gambling.com Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Gambling.com Group is on your radar, do not stop there. Cast a wider net so you can compare opportunities and spot themes that fit your style.

• Target income first by scanning these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that might suit investors who want regular cash returns alongside potential price movement.
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• Hunt for potential mispricing by reviewing these 882 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that screen for gaps between cash flow based value estimates and current market prices.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.