Jackson Financial (JXN) just closed a material deal with TPG Inc., involving a US$500 million common equity investment for roughly 6.5% of the company and a 10 year renewable investment management agreement.

Despite a 1 day share price return of 1.51% lifting the stock to US$113.8, the 7 day share price return of 4.33% and flat 30 day move contrast with a 24.44% 90 day share price return and very strong 3 year total shareholder return of 165.96%. This suggests that longer term momentum has been much stronger than the recent pullback.

If this TPG deal has you thinking about where else capital might find long term partners, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with 23 top founder-led companies.

Jackson now trades a little below the average analyst price target, and management’s own intrinsic value estimate implies a larger gap. So is the market underestimating this TPG partnership, or already pricing in whatever growth comes next?

Most Popular Narrative: 3.8% Undervalued

With Jackson Financial last closing at $113.8 against a widely followed fair value estimate of about $118.33, the narrative is framing only a modest discount that still rests on some punchy long term assumptions.

The strategic shift toward greater product diversification, especially fee based and spread products like RILA and fixed annuities, is expanding Jackson's margins, reducing earnings volatility, and positioning the company to benefit from long term trends in defined contribution retirement plans, positively impacting net margins and overall profitability.

Curious how that product mix, margin expansion, and a lower future earnings multiple all still line up with a higher fair value than today? The full narrative walks through the projected revenue path, profitability reset, and valuation anchor that tie those moving parts together.

Result: Fair Value of $118.33 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that fair value case still relies on assumptions that could be challenged if variable annuity net outflows persist or asset quality issues begin to have an impact.

Build Your Own Jackson Financial Narrative

If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion, or simply want to test your own angles, you can build a custom view in a few minutes by starting with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Jackson Financial.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.