Medical Properties Trust (MPW) is back on traders’ radar after a surge in call options activity and higher implied volatility ahead of its February 26 earnings release, which points to heightened expectations around the upcoming numbers.

At a share price of US$5.02, Medical Properties Trust has seen relatively muted recent share price returns. Its 1 year total shareholder return of 14.29% contrasts with much weaker 3 and 5 year total shareholder returns and points to interest that has picked up only recently as traders reassess both growth potential and risk around upcoming earnings and the recent headquarters relocation.

If this kind of earnings driven attention has you looking beyond a single REIT, it could be a good time to scan other healthcare stocks that may be drawing fresh interest as well.

With the shares around US$5.02, an intrinsic value estimate that sits at a 26% discount, and a share price only slightly below the average analyst target, you have to ask: is there real upside here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 2.8% Undervalued

With Medical Properties Trust at US$5.02 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of about US$5.17, the gap here is modest but clear enough to pay attention to.

Successful refinancing of large European JVs at attractive fixed rates (for example, 5.1% over 10 years) and the ability to attract strong institutional investor interest underscores ongoing access to affordable capital, which should support net margin resilience and open pathways for asset recycling and growth investments.

Curious what sits behind that fair value call? Revenue lines, margin repair, and a future earnings multiple are all wired into this narrative. The exact mix might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of US$5.17 (UNDERVALUED)

However, there is still meaningful tenant concentration and ongoing asset impairments, and higher interest costs could pressure cash flow and challenge the current fair value narrative.

Build Your Own Medical Properties Trust Narrative

If this verdict does not sit right with you, or you would rather lean on your own work, you can dig into the numbers yourself and build a custom thesis in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Medical Properties Trust research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.