Molson Coors Beverage (TAP) is back in focus as investors weigh ongoing volume declines, pressured margins, and a negative return on capital against upcoming management commentary at February’s CAGNY conference and the 2025 earnings release.

At a share price of US$48.13, Molson Coors has seen a 4.56% 90 day share price return. However, its 1 year total shareholder return of a 4.8% decline suggests fading momentum despite upcoming earnings and CAGNY commentary on volume and margins.

If recent beer sector headlines have you reassessing your watchlist, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With Molson Coors reporting US$11.21b in revenue but a net loss of US$2,090.1 million and ongoing volume and margin pressure, you have to ask: is the current share price a cautious bargain, or is the market already pricing in any future recovery?

Most Popular Narrative: 5.3% Undervalued

With Molson Coors' fair value estimate at around US$50.81 versus a last close of US$48.13, the most followed narrative sees modest upside supported by specific earnings and margin assumptions.

Analysts are assuming Molson Coors Beverage's revenue will decrease by 0.6% annually over the next 3 years.

Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 9.2% today to 9.3% in 3 years time.

Curious how a flat top line can still support a higher valuation? The core of this narrative is about margins, earnings power, and where the P/E multiple lands by the end of the forecast period. Want to see which assumptions carry the most weight in that fair value math?

Result: Fair Value of $50.81 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on US beer volumes and input costs. Prolonged category softness or another spike in aluminum prices could quickly undermine those margin driven upside assumptions.

Build Your Own Molson Coors Beverage Narrative

If you see the setup differently, or prefer to work through the numbers on your own, you can build a personalized view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Molson Coors Beverage research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.