Why Post Holdings stock is back in focus

Post Holdings (POST) is back on investors' radars after profit in the latest quarter came in ahead of expectations, helped by strong Foodservice volume, better operational efficiency, and growth in value added egg products.

The latest quarterly beat, new leadership at Post Consumer Brands, board changes, and a fresh US$500m share repurchase program have come alongside a 13.16% 1 month share price return and a 65.31% 5 year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum has recently improved despite a slightly negative 1 year total shareholder return.

If this earnings reaction has you thinking about where else capital might work hard, now could be a good time to scan 23 top founder-led companies and see what stands out.

With shares up over the past month, but the 1-year total return still slightly negative and the stock trading below the average analyst price target, you have to ask: is there still an opportunity here, or has the market already priced in what comes next?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.2% Undervalued

At $110.41, Post Holdings sits below a narrative fair value of $124.38, which is built on detailed forecasts for earnings, margins and cash flows.

Post Holdings is positioned to benefit from increasing consumer demand for convenient, high protein, and nutrition oriented foods, as seen in the strong volume growth of UFIT and innovation efforts focused on new high protein cereal and granola products; these trends are expected to drive premium brand mix and support both top line revenue growth and margin expansion.

Want to see what sits behind that premium mix story? The narrative leans on a specific earnings ramp, tighter margins, and a different future multiple than today. The exact blend of those assumptions might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $124.38 (UNDERVALUED)

However, there are pressure points here, including volume declines in key cereal and pet food categories, as well as leverage above 4x, that could challenge the upbeat narrative.

Build Your Own Post Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently, or if you prefer to weigh the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes by starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Post Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.