New Zealand trial approval and what it could mean for Sarepta shares

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) is in focus after New Zealand regulator Medsafe cleared its clinical trial application for SRP-1005, enabling a first-in-human Phase 1 study in Huntington's Disease.

The Medsafe decision lands after a tough stretch for Sarepta investors, with a 30 day share price return of 15.81% and a year to date share price return decline of 16.52%, while the 1 year total shareholder return decline of 83.52% points to longer term pressure despite a 2.24% gain over the last day.

If this Huntington’s update has you thinking about other health focused opportunities, you may want to scan through 25 healthcare AI stocks as a starting list of ideas.

With Sarepta shares down sharply over the past year, but trading at a sizeable discount to analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates, you have to ask: is this a reset entry point, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.7% Undervalued

At a last close of $17.79 versus a narrative fair value of $20.61, the current price sits below what the most followed model implies. This puts extra weight on how the story around Sarepta’s gene therapy pipeline evolves from here.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $23.96 for Sarepta Therapeutics based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $80.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $5.0.

Want to see what is sitting underneath that wide range of targets? The narrative leans on shifting revenue mix, margin rebuild, and a future earnings multiple that assumes real staying power. Curious how those moving parts stack up over time and how an 8% style discount rate shapes today’s $20.61 fair value mark? The full narrative lays out each step.

Result: Fair Value of $20.61 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that story can change quickly if safety concerns around Elevidys or tighter reimbursement decisions slow new patient starts and challenge those long term margin assumptions.

Build Your Own Sarepta Therapeutics Narrative

If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply prefer to piece together your own view from scratch, you can build a custom Sarepta storyline in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Sarepta Therapeutics research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.