Simply Good Foods (SMPL) is back in focus after Joe Scalzo returned as CEO and joined the board, following Geoff Tanner’s departure. Investors are watching how this leadership change shapes priorities across Atkins, Quest and OWYN.

Despite the leadership reset and new incentive plans, Simply Good Foods’ 1 month share price return of a 19.0% decline and 1 year total shareholder return of a 53.0% decline point to fading momentum, even after recent analyst attention and an ESOP related shelf registration.

If this kind of reset has you thinking more broadly about where growth and leadership stories might emerge next, it could be a good moment to check out 22 top founder-led companies.

With the share price under pressure, a value score of 4, an intrinsic discount flag of about 73% and a price that sits well below recent analyst targets, you have to ask: is there a clear opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in whatever growth lies ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 39% Undervalued

With Simply Good Foods closing at $17.33 against a narrative fair value of $28.40, the current price sits well below what this widely followed model suggests.

The successful launch and scaling of Quest's salty snacks platform, which has grown to a $300 million business, suggests a long runway for further penetration and growth. This could drive future revenue growth for Simply Good Foods.

Want to see what kind of revenue and margin mix needs to sit behind that fair value? The story leans heavily on brand rotation and higher quality earnings. Curious how those assumptions stack up across Atkins, Quest and OWYN over the next few years? The full narrative lays out the playbook in numbers, not just headlines.

Result: Fair Value of $28.40 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the story only holds if Atkins’ 30% net sales contribution stops dragging on growth and if the OWYN integration in 2026 does not slip or underwhelm.

Build Your Own Simply Good Foods Narrative

If you see the story differently or simply want to test your own assumptions against the data, you can spin up a custom view and Do it your way in just a few minutes.

A great starting point for your Simply Good Foods research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.